Surprise of the century -- Sorpriża tas-seklu

 

The world still marvels at the election result for the US Presidency, which ended with the unexpected win by Donald Trump, against the predictions of practically everyone, including independent polling organisations, apart from somw within his own camp.

 

In Australia, this person enjoys next to no support from those that usually identify themselves with the major parties - Labor, the Liberal/National coalition, still less the Greens.  A clear exception was the delight of Pauline Hanson's One Nation, some of whose policies are quite similar to those of Trump.

 

Naturally, the popularity that counts for Americans is that of its own citizens, and at the time this article was being written (16th November), the vote count for Trump was 60.3 million, with 61.0 million voting for Hillary Clinton.

 

Isn't this situation strange, that he who wins less votes wins.  This is the result of the American Electoral College system, originally thought by the fathers of the nation to avoid the situation where a large state imposes its will on another.

 

The first time I had encountered a similar situation was in Malta, in the 1981 national election, where the Nationalist Party (NP) had got 50.9% of first count votes, but less members in parliament than the Malta Labour Party (MLP).  The country had been quite shocked with what had happened, so much so that the day after the election, the hooting of car horns and provocative taunts by the winning supporters had already ceased, whereas usually these take another 2-3 days, whoever wins.

 

That result, termed perverse, was possible due to so-called 'wasted votes', where if say a party elects, say, 3 candidates from a district as it would have obtained more than 3 quotas from that district but less than 4, the 'extra' votes are 'wasted' for that party, even if distrubuted to other candidates according to preferences.  In that instance, the NP had more wasted votes than the MLP.

 

The NP says that then the MLP had carried out gerrymandering (malicious district manipulation).  The MLP says the NP did the same in 1996 when Alfred Sant won the election but only had a single seat majority, with the consequences we all know.  In fact, I think both are right.  The MLP fixed the system up to a point, in collaboration with the NP by an amendment to the constitution, which needs a vote of at least two thirds of the members of parliament.

 

The American system is more complex than this, as the votes for the presidency don't go directly to the candidate, but go to members of the so-called Electoral College, which eventually elects the President.  Each state is given a different number of members that need to be elected in this Electoral College, and this number is not proportional to the population of the state.

 

This leads to strange results, like the fact that a vote in Wyoming is worth three votes in California.  Perversity on steroids!

 

In fact, a certain Donald Trump in 2012 on Twitter had described the Electoral College system as a 'disaster for democracy'.1  I would assume that today he's changed his mind, presumably.

After the initial shock, I had to pinch myself to accept that I'll soon start hearing about President Trump, and my thoughts quickly turned to the measures that Trump had declared he wanted to implement.

Of great interest for me is his desire to tear up last year's Paris Agreement on climate change, a United Nations agreement that has taken many years to get countries together, especially the biggest emitters, that is the United States and China.  Currently, government delegations are in Morocco to review what elswe needs to be done to achieve the outcomes that had been agreed in Paris.  I can imagine delegates are wasting more time scratching their heads and wondering whether all their work is going up in smoke (excuse the pun), and if this last chance to save our planet is about to be lost.

 

Another declaration what the imposition of a 45% tariff on importation from China, in order to protect American industry.  This declaration refers to fundamental principles that we might comment on another time, however today I'll just say that this step would likely lead to retaliation by China.  Who knows, perhaps China will decide to introduce a tariff on importantion into China from countries that dont' implement the Paris agreement, and present this as a moral step to aid the environment!

 

Readers are facing a few interesting years ahead of us, whether we live in the US or not.  I just hope we won't all end up burnt (or drown under rising sea levels)!

 

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Id-dinja għadha mmeraviljata kif l-elezzjoni għall-Presidenza fl-Istati Uniti spiċċat bir-rebħa, mhux mistennija, minn Donald Trump, kontra l-previżjonijiet tista' tgħid kollha, anke ta' organizzazzjonijiet ta' stħarriġ indipendenti, minbarra ta' wħud mill-kampanja elettorali tiegħu.

 

Fl-Awstralja, dan il-bniedem jidher li jgawdi ftit li xejn popolarità minn dawk li normalment jidentifikaw ruħhom mal-partiti l-kbar, il-Laburisti u l-Liberali/Nazzjonali, u wisq inqas mill-Ħodor.  Eċċezzjoni evidenti kien il-pjaċir ta' One Nation ta' Pauline Hanson, li għandha politika pjuttost simili għal dik ta' Trump.

 

Naturalment, il-popolarità li tgħodd għall-Amerikani hija dik taċ-ċittadini tagħhom stess, u fil-ħin li kien qed jinkiteb dan l-artiklu (16 ta' Novembru), l-għadd ta' nies li vvutaw għal Trump kien 60.3 miljun, filwaqt li 61.0 miljun kienu vvutaw għal Hillary Clinton.

 

Xi stramberija din hux, li jista' jirbaħ min kellu inqas voti.  Riżultat tas-sistema Amerikana ta' kulleġġi elettorali, oriġinarjament maħsuba mill-missirijiet tan-nazzjoni Amerikan, sabiex l-ebda stat għax ikbar minn ieħor ma jkun jista' jimponi r-rieda tiegħu fuq ieħor.

 

L-ewwel darba li kont esperjenzajt xi ħaġa simili kienet f'Malta, fl-elezzjoni nazzjonali tal-1981, fejn il-Partit Nazzjonalista (PN) kien ġab 50.9% tal-voti fl-ewwel għadd, imma inqas membri fil-parlament mill-Partit Laburista (PL, dakinhar MLP).  Il-pajjiż kien pjuttost ixxukkjat b'dak li kien ġara, tant li niftakar li l-għada tal-elezzjoni il-ħornijiet tal-karozzi tal-partitarji li kienu rebħu, flimkien mal-għajjat ta' “oħorġu ja mdejqin”, kienu diġà kważi waqfu għal kollox, meta s-soltu jdumu sejrin xi jumejn jew tlieta, ikun rebaħ min rebaħ.

 

Dak ir-riżultat, imsejjaħ pervers, kien possibbli minħabba dawk li huma msejħin 'voti moħlija', fejn jekk partit tella', ngħidu aħna, 3 kandidati minn distrett, għax ikun ġab iktar minn tliet kwoti minn dak id-distrett imma inqas minn erbgħa, dawk il-voti 'żejda' jiġu 'moħlija' għal dak il-partit, għalkemm jitqassmu skont il-preferenzi lil kandidati oħra.  Dakinhar, il-PN kellu voti moħlija iktar mill-MLP.

 

Il-PN jgħidu li dakinhar il-MLP għamlu gerrymandering (logħob makakk bid-distretti).  Il-MLP jgħidu li l-PN għamlu l-istess fl-1996 meta kien tela' Alfred Sant imma kellu biss siġġu wieħed maġġoranza bil-konsegwenzi li lkoll nafu.  Fil-fatt, naħseb li t-tnejn għandhom raġun.  Il-PL fil-gvern irranġa s-sistema sa' ċertu punt, b'kollaborazzjoni mal-PN b'emendi fil-Kostituzzjoni, li għandha bżonn vot ta' mill-inqas żewġ terzi fil-parlament.

 

Is-sistema Amerikana hija iktar ikkumplikata minn hekk, għax il-voti għall-presidenza ma jmorrux direttament għal kandidat, imma jmorru għall membri tal-hekk imsejjaħ Kulleġġ Elettorali, li eventwalment jeleġġi l-President.  Kull stat huwa mogħti numru differenti ta' membri li jridu jitilgħu f'dan il-Kulleġġ Elettorali, u dan in-numru mhux proporzjonali għall-popolazzjoni ta' dak l-istat.

 

Dan iwassal għal stramberiji bħall-fatt li vot fi stat bħal Wyoming jiswa daqs tliet voti f'California.  Perversità bl-isteroids!

 

Fil-fatt, ċertu Donald Trump fl-2012 fuq Twitter kien iddeskriva l-Kulleġġ Elettorali bħala 'diżastru għad-demokrazija'.1  Qed nassumi li m'għadux jaħsibha l-istess, preżumibbilment.

 

Wara x-xokk inizjali, kelli noqros lili nnifsi biex inniżżilha li dalwaqt se nibda nisma' bil-President Trump, u malajr il-ħsieb darli għall-miżuri li Trump stqarr li ried iwettaq.

 

Għalija ta' interess kbir kienet ir-rieda tiegħu li jitqatta' l-ftehim ta' Pariġi tas-sena l-oħra għall-kontroll tat-tibdil tal-klima, ftehim tal-Ġnus Magħquda li kien ilu ħafna snin biex iġib lill-pajjiżi biex jaslu għalih, speċjalment l-ikbar pajjiżi li jagħmlu dan it-tniġġiż, jiġifieri l-Istati Uniti u ċ-Ċina fuq nett.  Bħalissa d-delegazzjonijiet tal-gvernijiet qed jiltaqgħu fil-Marokk biex jirrevedu x'iktar hemm bżonn xi jsir biex jitwettqu l-miri li ġew miftiehma f'Pariġi.  Nimmaġina d-delegati bħalissa iktar qed jaħlu ħin iħokku rashom u jaħsbu jekk xogħolhom kollu hux se jispiċċa suf, u jekk dan l-aħħar ċans li nsalvaw il-pjaneta tagħna hux se jintilef għal kollox.

 

Stqarrija oħra kienet li se jimponi tariffa ta' 45% fuq l-importazzjoni miċ-Ċina, biex tiġi protetta l-industrija Amerikana.  Din l-istqarrija tirreferi għal prinċipji fundamentali li forsi nikkummentaw darb'oħra fuqhom, biss illum ngħid li pass bħal dan aktarx iwassal għal ritaljazzjoni miċ-Ċina.  Min jaf, forsi ċ-Ċina tiddeċiedi li tintroduċi tariffa għall-importazzjoni ġoċ-Ċina minn pajjiżi li ma jwettqux fil-ftehim ta' Pariġi, u tista' tippreżenta dan il-pass bħala wieħed morali favur l-ambjent!

 

Żgur li għall-qarrejja ġejjin snin interessanti quddiemna, kemm jekk noqgħodu fl-Istati Uniti u kemm jekk le.  Nispera biss li ma ninħarqux ilkoll (jew ngħerqu fil-baħar tiela')!

 

 

 

1http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-electoral-college-twitter-disaster-democracy-comments-us-election-2016-a7408836.html, retrieved 16/11/2016

1http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-electoral-college-twitter-disaster-democracy-comments-us-election-2016-a7408836.html, retrieved 16/11/2016

What cruelty! -- Xi ħdura!

 

English and Maltese both utilise the colour green, not only as an adjective, but also as an idiom, though they are used in different contexts.  In English for example, you will often encounter a reference to someone being 'green with envy' apart from its other use as signifying environmental concern.  

 

In Maltese, sometimes people are referred to as being green (kemm hu aħdar!), or having a 'green heart' (għandha qalbha ħadra!).  This is done in the context of an observation of a person behaving with unacceptable cruelty.

 

What has inspired this literary foray is a recent announcement by the Australian government that it will attempt to pass legislation so that no person who arrived by sea to seek asylum from mid 2013, will not be allowed to enter Australia, for any reason.1

 

Now we're no longer talking about those who are deemed refugees that had arrived by sea, and taken to be processed on Nauru and PNG's Manus Island, not being allowed to settle here.  This had been a tough decision takeny by the Labor government in 2013, which had stepped back from the political, and risky, decision in 2008 to remove restrictions in place at the time in processing asylum applications offshore, without there being alternatives in place for how these are to be processed.

 

That 2008 decision had simply been premature, but resulted in encouraging tens of thousands of refugees to seek asylum here, and many hundreds, more than a thousand in fact, losing their lives in the high seas.

 

I had accepted the 2013 decision as necessary (see The Voice No. 80) as a deterrent.  As we know, the current Liberal-National coalition, has long boasted that there are no longer refugees arriving by sea and those hundreds of deaths at sea in this part of the world have stopped (the same cannot be said, unfortunately, for the seas around Malta).

 

However now the government is saying that not only refugees arriving by sea will not be allowed to settle here in Australia, but are proposing that they be prohibited from coming here for any reason.

 

They won't be allowed to come on holiday.

 

The can't come for a short while to visit family members.

 

Not even on business, or to live with their Australian spouses.

 

Not even if they would have left Nauru and Manus Island to settle in another haven country, and had been there a decade or two.

 

NEVER.

 

That's actually untrue, as they are proposing one exception, where the minister would be able to use his discretion and compassion, which he possesses in spades, when a particular case touches his heart.  Good luck with that.

 

To those showing such an attitude, Maltese people would feel that applying (figuratively) the green colour would be appropriate.

 

What is the need to be more vicious with someone so in need, far away from his country, forced to disrupt his life and that of his family, fleeing persecution?  The government has been boasting of having been able to stop the boats with refugees coming to Australia, so why is there the need to be more pitiless?

 

It is no wonder that Pauline Hanson's One Nation party, which years ago ran her scares on Asian immigration and now on Muslim immigration, has congratulated the government.  Political commentators are saying that the Liberal-National coalition is trying to attract those that in the last election had voted for One Nation.

 

That could well be the case.  Nevertheless I favour another theory.

 

Prime Minister Turnbull some weeks ago announced that the number of refugees to be accepted each year will go up from 13,750 to 18,750.  Doubtlessly this is a positive step (in my opinion).  This clarifies a declaration that had been made by his predecessor Tony Abbott of an increase to that amount, but hadn't been clear whether this was a one-off or a yearly increase.

 

Turnbull has declared that part of this increase will come from refugees from Costa Rica.2  I read this step as intended to reassure those in his party, and almost half the Australian people who are against Muslim migration3, as one might expect Christian people from Costa Rica.

My theory is that Turnbull still has internal opposition to this incease, and so is trying to appease them by tying it to a harsh measure likely to appeal to those voters of his party who sympathise with the policies of One Nation.

In any case, my comment is this.  It seems there are people in government, who are paid to invent sadistic measures to be applied on those that are vulnerable, far away from our shores and eyes.  And our representatives show up on our television screens, and brazenly tout the wisdom and goodness of their leadership.

What cruelty.

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Le, m'iniex nitkellem fuq il-foresti tropikali, sub-tropikali jew Alpini tal-Awstralja.  Lanqas fuq il-paesaġġ Malti wara l-ewwel xita.

 

Il-gvern Awstraljan għadu kif ħabbar li se jipprova jgħaddi leġislazzjoni sabiex l-ebda persuna li tkun waslet bil-baħar biex tfittex l-ażil min-nofs tas-sena 2013, ma titħalla tidħol l-Awstralja, għall-ebda raġuni.1

 

Issa m'għadniex nitkellmu fuq li persuni li jitqiesu refuġjati li jkunu ġew bil-baħar, u li jittieħdu biex jiġu pproċessati f'Nauru u Manus Island tal-PNG, ma jitħallewx jiġi biex joqogħdu hawnhekk.  Dan kien pass iebes li kien ħa gvern Laburista fl-2013, li kien reġa lura mid-deċiżjoni politika, u r-riskju, li fl-2008 jneħħi r-restrizzjonijiet li kienu fis-seħħ ftit snin qabel fl-ipproċessar tal-applikazzjonijiet għall-ażil,  mingħajr ma kien hemm alternattiva ta' kif se jiġu pproċessati.  

 

Dik id-deċiżjoni tal-2008 kienet sempliċement prematura, imma wasslet biex tħajjar għexieren ta' eluf ta' refuġjati biex ifittxu l-ażil hawnhekk, u lil ħafna mijiet ta' nies, iktar minn elf, biex jispiċċaw jgħerqu fiż-żaqq ratba imma ras iebsa tal-baħar.

 

Id-deċiżjoni tal-2013 jien ukoll aċċettajt li kienet neċessarja (ara The Voice Nru. 80) bħala deterrent.  Bħal ma nafu, l-gvern ta' koalizzjoni preżenti, dak Liberali-Nazzjonali, ilu jiftaħar li m'għadhomx jiġu rifuġjati bil-baħar u waqfu dawk il-mijiet ta' mwiet f'dawn in-naħiet tad-dinja (mhux l-istess jista' jingħad, diżgrazzjatament, għall-inħawi ta' Malta).

 

Imm'ssa l-gvern qed jgħid li mhux biss ir-rifuġjati li jkunu ġew bil-baħar ma jitħallewx jiġu joqogħdu hawnhekk, imma qed jipproponu li ma jkunux jistgħu jiġu l-Awstralja għall-ebda raġuni.

 

Ma jistgħux jiġu btala.

 

Ma jistgħux jiġu għal żmien qasir biex jiltaqgħu mal-familjari tagħhom.

 

Lanqas jistgħu jiġu fuq negozju, jew biex joqogħdu ma' żwieġhom Awstraljan.

 

Lanqas jekk ilhom li telqu minn Nauru u Manus Island għal xi pajjiż ieħor li laqagħhom, u ilhom hemm għaxar snin, għoxrin sena.

 

QATT.

 

Qed nigdeb, għax qed jipproponu eċċezzjoni waħda, fejn il-ministru jista' juża d-diskrezzjoni tiegħu u juża l-ħniena tiegħu, li minna għandu biex ibigħ, meta xi każ irattablu qalbu.  J'Alla tmissek ix-xorti.

 

Aħna l-Maltin għandna aġġettiv li joqgħod għal min juri atteġġjament bħal dan.  Aħdar.

 

X'inhu l-bżonn li nkomplu nżidu l-ħruxija ma' min jinsab tant fil-bżonn, 'il bogħod minn pajjiżu, sfurzat iħarbat lil ħajtu u dik ta' familtu, u li qed jaħrab il-persekuzzjoni?  Il-gvern ilu jiftaħar kemm irnexxilu jwaqqaf id-dgħajjes bir-rifuġjati ġejjin l-Awstralja, allura għalfejn hemm bżonn inkomplu nżidu d-doża ta' kefrija?

 

Mhux ta' b'xejn li l-partit One Nation ta' Pauline Hanson, dak li snin ilu kien ibeżża' bl-immigranti Ażjatiċi u issa bl-immigranti Musulmani, ħareġ jgħid prosit lill-gvern.  Kummentaturi politiċi qed jgħidu li l-Koalizzjoni Liberali-Nazzjonali qed tipprova terġa' tiġbed lejha partitarji li fl-aħħar elezzjoni vvutaw għal One Nation.

 

Dan jista' jkun.  Jien madankollu niffavorixxi teorija oħra.  

 

Il-Prim Ministru Turnbull ftit ġimgħat ilu ħabbar li se jżid l-ammont ta' rifuġjati li jieħu fis-sena minn 13,750 għal 18,750.  Bla dubju dan huwa pass pożittiv (fl-opinjoni tiegħi).  Dan iċċara dikjarazzjoni li kienet saret mill-predeċessur tiegħu Tony Abbott ta' żieda għal dak l-ammont, imma li ma kienx ċar jekk din kinetx żieda ta' darba jew ta' kull sena.

 

Turnbull iddikjara wkoll li parti minn din iż-żieda se tiġi minn rifuġjati mill-Costa Rica.2  Dan il-pass narah intenzjonat biex jserraħ ras lil dawk fil-partit tiegħu, u l-kważi nofs il-poplu Awstraljan li huma kontra l-immigrazzjoni mill-Musulmani3, għax mill-Costa Rica nies Insara tistenna.

 

It-teorija tiegħi hi li Turnbull xorta għandu oppożizzjoni interna għal din iż-żieda  u ried ikompli jbenġilha b'miżura ħarxa li tappella għal dawk il-votanti tal-partit tiegħu li fil-fatt jissimpatizzaw mal-politika ta' One Nation.  

 

Hi x'inhi, il-kumment tiegħi hu dan.  Jidher li hemm nies fil-gvern, li huma mħallsa biex jivvintaw miżuri sadisti li jiġu applikati lil min huwa vulnerabbli, kemm jista' jkun 'il bogħod minn xtutna u minn għajnejna.  U r-rappreżentanti tagħna jiġu quddiem it-televiżjoni, u b'wiċċhom minn quddiem ikantaw fuq l-għaqal u t-tjubija tat-tmexxija tagħhom.

 

Xi ħdura.

 

 

1https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/30/asylum-seekers-face-lifetime-ban-on-entering-australia-if-they-arrive-by-boat, retrieved 1/11/2016

2http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-21/un-refugee-summit-australia-intake-upped-to-19,000-per-year/7863712, retrieved 1/11/2016

3http://www.essentialvision.com.au/ban-on-muslim-immigration, retrieved 1/11/2016

1https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/30/asylum-seekers-face-lifetime-ban-on-entering-australia-if-they-arrive-by-boat, retrieved 1/11/2016

2http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-21/un-refugee-summit-australia-intake-upped-to-19,000-per-year/7863712, retrieved 1/11/2016

3http://www.essentialvision.com.au/ban-on-muslim-immigration, retrieved 1/11/2016