Grexit or not -- Grexit jew le

Grexit or not

 

Over the past few years, we've been hearing about EU country members that find themselves in financial difficulties.  Those that have been mentioned most were Ireland, Italy, Spain and for the longest period of time, Greece.  The word Grexit is used to signify a possible consequence of these financial difficulties: the need for Greece to leave the EU's monetary unit, the Euro, and re-introduce the drachma, its erstwhile currency.

 

These difficulties really boil down to one attitude of governments that lead them, that is the tendency of government that during a year spends more than its revenue, called a deficit.

 

To finance this deficit, a government needs to borrow money, called debt.  For this privilege, the government needs to pay interest to its creditors and when the contract of the debt expires, the debt needs to be repaid in full.

 

To put the cherry on the cake, these governments (and others) did this year after year after year, even for decades.  Hence, debt just grew and grew, and got so big that the governments no longer found idiots who were ready to lend them money at low interest rates, and went begging to huge financial agencies, like the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the ECB (European Central bank), as well as the European Commission, the so-called 'troika'.

 

This debt grew, notwithstanding that the Stability and Growth Pact signed by all EU countries in 1998 states that debt should not grow to more than 60% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product).  Until the end of 2014, Greece had debt equivalent to 177% of GDP, the second worst country in the world in this statistic after Japan.  As a comparison, the average in Europe was 91%, Malta had 67% and Australia 28%.1

 

How Greece ended in this state, theses will be written.  I'm no economist, however it seems that many present actors in this drama, as well as some others, contributed to the brew.2

 

You can understand why Greece is in the news bulletins.  The country has already twice obtained help from the troika (in 2010 and 2011) and this year has sought help for a third time.  This seems to be a drama that never ends.

 

EU countries have already decided to offer help to Greece for a third time, with hard conditions, and the Greek government is having to eat its words of even just a few days ago.  Indeed, quite a few comments were heard coming from Greece that weren't really of encouragement to those considering providing assistance to that country.

 

The first comment I have in mind was one that was persistently made, that Greece may decide not to repay its debts, a situation called default.  In fact, this has already happened this month.3  If Greece does not commit itself to repay its debt, who will take the risk of lending it any more?

 

There was another comment during an interview in the Greek streets, that the Greeks did not know what debt was being undertaken by their government.  I don't this as a valid argument.  In a democratic system, the people elect their government, which has the authority to act on their and the country's behalf, for better of for worse.

We've seen scenes of people queuing outside banks trying to get some cash to be able to survive, desperately moving from one ATM to another as the money supply was running out.  It was pitiful to watch the pain of people and pensioners who live from cheque to cheque.

 

Nevertheless it should also be said that the countries from which help is being sought also have their own pensioners.  Not all countries are as rich as Germany and Norway.

 

Until the end of 2012, in Malta the non-contributory pension of a couple where only one person is eligible consisted of €4,200 while widows had €5200.4  Pensioners under the contributory system in 2014 were paid an average of €7500 a year5 and with the two thirds system can take a maximum of  €14,500.6

 

In Greece, the average pensioner takes €8,700.7

 

I am not against a country being helped in its hour of need, even if this country cannot be called poor.  Everyone can end up in need for some reason or another.

 

Nevertheless I get taken aback hearing harsh words coming out of Greece about Europe.8  Malta also forms part of this continent, and has decided to contribute up to €511 million to the ESM (European Stability Mechanism), of which €58 million have already been paid.9  Every Euro contributed is a Euro that could have gone to Maltese pensioners.  From this fund, Greece can benefit, if it accepts.

 

This is apart from the guarantee made by Malta, together with the other countries of the EU, from which Greece has already benefited.

 

Therefore, I very much wish that the foolish words that have been heard by these Maltese neighbours just cease.  It's true that they originate from people who are suffering, and also that they may contain some truth, however those listening have made their own sacrifices, without much fanfare and with positive results.

 

Don't bite the hand that feeds you!

 

 

Grexit jew le

 

Għal dawn l-aħħar snin, ilna nisimgħu dwar pajjiżi tal-Unjoni Ewropea li jinsabu f'diffikultà finanzjarja.  L-iktar li ssemmew kienu l-Irlanda, l-Italja, Spanja u l-iktar fit-tul il-Greċja.  Il-kelma Grexit tintuża biex tirreferi għall-possibiltà li minħabba d-diffikultajiet finanzjarji tagħha, il-Greċja jkollha tħalli l-munita tal-UE l-Ewro, u terġa ddaħħal id-drakma, il-munita li kellha qabel.

 

Dawn id-diffikultajiet tista' tagħsarhom għal attitudni waħda tal-gvernijiet li jmexxuhom, ċioe t-tendenza li l-gvern matul is-sena jonfoq iktar milli jdaħħal, li jissejjaħ defiċit.  

 

Biex jiffinanzja dan id-defiċit, il-gvern irid jissellef il-flus, li jissejjaħ dejn.  Għal dan il-privileġġ, il-gvern irid iħallas l-imgħax lil min qed isellfu u meta jiskadi ż-żmien ta' kull kuntratt tad-dejn, irid iħallsu lura kollu.

 

Biex tgħaxxaqha, dawn il-gvernijiet (u oħrajn) għamlu hekk sena wara sena wara sena, anke għal għexieren ta' snin.  Għalhekk, id-dejn kiber u kiber, u sar tant kbir li l-gvernijiet ma baqgħux isibu mtaten li lesti li jsellfu l-flus iktar b'rati ta' imgħax baxxi, u marru jittalbu mingħand aġenziji kbar finanzjarji, bħall-IMF (International Monetary Fund), l-ECB (European Central Bank) u l-Kummissjoni Ewropea, l'hekk imsejħa trojka.

 

Dan id-dejn kiber, minkejja li regola fil-Patt ta' Stabbiltà u Tkabbir li ffirmaw il-pajjiżi tal-UE fil-1998 tgħid li d-dejn m'għandux jikber iktar minn 60% tal-GDP (Gross Domestic Product - il-Prodott Gross Domestiku).  Sal-aħħar tal-2014, il-Ġreċja kellha dejn daqs 177% tal-GDP, it-tieni l-agħar pajjiż fid-dinja f'din l-istatistika wara l-Ġappun.  Bħala daqsxejn ta' paragun, il-medja tal-Ewropa kienet 91%, Malta kellha 67% u l-Awstralja 28%.1

 

Kif il-Greċja spiċċa f'dan l-istat, għad iridu jinkitbu teżijiet.  Jien m'inix ekonomista, imma jidher li ħafna atturi preżenti ta' din id-drama, kif ukoll xi oħrajn, kollha taw daqqa t'id biex iħawwdu din il-borma.2

 

Tista' tifhimha kif il-Greċja qegħda fl-aħbarijiet.  Il-pajjiż diġà sabet l-għajnuna mingħand it-trojka darbtejn (fl-2010 u l-2011) u din is-sena reġgħet talbet l-għajnuna għat-tielet darba.  Din qisha storja drammatika li ma tispiċċa qatt.

 

Il-pajjiżi tal-UE reġgħu ddeċidew li joffru għajnuna lill-Greċja għat-tielet darba, b'kundizzjonijiet ibsin, u l-gvern Grieg qed ikollu jiekol kliemu anke ta' ftit jiem ilu.  Tassew, instemgħu ħafna kummenti ħerġin mill-Greċja li ma tantx kienu jagħmlu kuraġġ lil min qed jikkonsidra jerġa' jgħin lil dak il-pajjiż.

 

L-ewwel kumment li għandi f'rasi kien wieħed li ngħad b'ċerta persistenza, li l-Greċja tista' tiddeċiedi li ma tħallasx id-dejn tagħha, sitwazzjoni li tissejjaħ default.  Fil-fatt għadha kif għamlet hekk f'dan ix-xahar.3  Jekk il-Greċja ma tikkommettix ruħha biex tħallas lura d-dejn tagħha, min se jieħu r-riskju li jsellifha iktar?

 

Kien hemm kumment li smajt waqt intervista fit-toroq tal-Greċja li l-Griegi ma kinux jafu x'dejn kien qed jidħol għalih il-gvern tagħhom.  Dan ma narahx li huwa argument validu.  F'sistema demokratika, huwa l-poplu li jtella' l-gvern, li għandu l-poter li jitkellem f'ismu u f'isem il-pajjiż, għat-tajjeb u għall-ħażin.

 

Rajna diversi xeni ta' nies fil-kjuwijiet barra l-banek biex jippruvaw joħorġu xi flus biex ikunu jistgħu jgħixu, iddisprati jmorru minn ATM għall-ieħor għax il-flus kienu nixfu.  L-uġigħ tan-nies u tal-pensjonanti li jgħixu minn ċekk għal ċekk iġġiblek ħasra.

 

Biss irid jingħad ukoll li l-pajjiżi li minnhom qed jiġi mitlub l-għajnuna wkoll għandhom il-pensjonanti tagħhom.  Mhux il-pajjiżi kollha huma għonja bħall-Ġermanja u n-Norveġja.  

Sal-aħħar tal-2012, f'Malta l-pensjoni non-kontributorja ta' koppja fejn wieħed biss huwa eliġibbli għaliha, jingħata €4200 fis-sena, mentri r-romol jieħdu €5200.4  Pensjonanti taħt is-sistema kontributorja fl-2014 tħallsu medja ta' €7500 fis-sena5 u bis-sistema taż-żewġ terzi jistgħu jieħdu massimu ta' €14,500.6

 

Fil-Greċja, pensjonant medju jieħu madwar €8,700 fis-sena.7

 

Jien m'inix kontra li pajjiż jiġi megħjun fis-siegħa tal-prova tiegħu, anke jekk dak il-pajjiż ma jistax jissejjaħ fqir.  Kulħadd jista' jiġi bżonn l-għajnuna għal xi raġuni jew l-oħra.

 

Madankollu neħodha bi kbira li nisma' kummenti ħorox ħerġin mill-Greċja fuq l-Ewropa.8  Malta wkoll tifforma parti minn dan il-kontinent, u ddeċidiet li tikkontribwixxi sa €511 miljun lill-ESM (European Stability Mechanism - Mekkaniżmu għall-Istabbilta Ewropea), li minnhom tħallsu €58 miljun.9  Kull Ewro li tat kien Ewro li minflok seta mar għall-pensjonanti Maltin.  Minn dan il-fond se tibbenefika l-Greċja, jekk taċċetta.

 

Dan apparti l-garanziji li għamlet Malta, flimkien mal-pajjiżi l-oħra tal-UE, li minnhom diġa bbenefikat il-Greċja.

 

Għalhekk, jien nixtieq li dan il-ħafna kliem żejjed li smajna minn dawn il-ġirien tal-Maltin jieqaf.  Veru li ġej minn nies li qed ibatu, u anke li jista' jkun hemm xi verità fihom, imma min qed jisma' qed jagħmel is-sagrifiċċji tiegħu wkoll, mingħajr ħafna daqq ta' trombi u b'riżultati pożittivi.

 

Iddardarx l-għajn li tixrob minnha!

 

 

1http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp, retrieved 13/7/2015

2http://www.vox.com/2015/7/6/8900659/greek-crisis-blame, retrieved 13/7/2015

3http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp, retrieved 13/7/2015

4Country Report Malta 2007-2012, Euromod, Pauline Saliba

5Malta in Figures 2014, National Statistics Office

6http://www.msvlife.com/products/retirement/your-state-pension-explained, retrieved 13/7/2015

7Pensions at a Glance 2013, OECD

8http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/06/yanis-varoufakis-some-of-his-best-quotes, retrieved 13/7/2015

9EFSF ESM New Investor Presentation, July 2015

Energy in the Future -- L-Enerġija fil-Futur

Energy in the Future

 

Around the world, it's become common for electrical energy consumers to invest in equipment that generates electricity from the sun, helped by subsidies from the country's government.  This was the case in Australia, where there were 1.4 million systems installed by the end of 2014,1 as well as in Malta and several other countries around the world.  This has been a major factor in the reduction in consumption of electrical energy in the National Electricity Market of Australia (which serves all states and territories except West Australia and the Northern Territory) in the last few years.2

 

You could divide the sustainable generation of electricity into sources that are constant, as is water stored behind a dam, and those that are variable, such as the sun and wind.  For the latter to be considered complete substitutes for generation from unsustainable sources, like coal and oil, excess energy generated during the day, or when the wind is blowing, needs to be stored and used during the night or when there is no wind.

 

A few technologies have been proposed for this temporary storage, which involves a change from one form of energy to another.  For example, in batteries, this transformation is to chemical energy; in the storage of water at a height, it become potential energy; in high mass disks rotating at high speed, it becomes angular momentum.

 

Although the physics behind these technologies is known, none have been widely deployed commercially for the storage of sustainable energy from variable sources.  This has led to the argument that although sustainable energy is a good idea, we will still need the traditional generators (coal, oil or nuclear) which are able to guarantee supply (baseload power).

 

This may change soon.

 

A few weeks ago, there was a statement3 by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, a well-known company that produces luxury sport cars that work exclusively by electricity.  He declared that later on this year, his company will be in a position to offer to homes and businesses batteries that are able to store energy that they would have generated by photovoltaic panels.  He continued that the would no longer be a need to be connected to the grid, which is the system for distribution of electrical energy.

 

Finally, he predicted that this system of batteries for homes will be easily justifiable by the prices for electricity in Australia.

 

Naturally this is just a prediction, and this declaration has been made by someone who has a commercial interest, and so needs to be taken cautiously.  However, I can say I did not find anything outlandish with this declaration.  Furthermore, we've already started to see other companies like AGL getting ready to offer something similar.4

 

In Australia, we often hear that electricity prices are very high, and that one of the reasons for this is  the over-investment in the distribution infrastructure, the so-called gold plating.5

Over- or unnecessary investment is naturally a bad thing, however investment needs to happen, as currently there is a revolution under way in the supply of electricity.  As I mentioned before, more and more homes and businesses are investing in photovoltaic panels and other sustainable generators.  Slowly slowly, vehicles that run on electricity are being sporadically connected to the grid.  All of this is putting pressure on the grid which was not designed for this.

 

I expect there will be the inclination of many people who have photovoltaic panels to take advantage of these batteries to disconnect from the grid.  This is not necessarily a positive development, even if it may bring them economic advantages.

 

Until today, the problem has been that there was no technology that was being used to store energy on a big scale.  If these battery systems in homes and businesses become reality, and the homes and businesses continue to be connected to the grid, they can continue to contribute their excess energy, and the need for the large providers of electricity to provide their own large scale storage will be reduced. if not eliminated.  This would be a huge step forward so the country can place its trust more into the generation of electricity from variable sources.

 

Conversely, if these homes and businesses disconnect, this advantage will disappear.

 

The NSW Liberal Party has just won the state election with a pledge to lease the electrical distribution network (the so-called poles and wires) to private operators and is taking steps to put this policy in place.  The Labor Party campaigned against this policy by saying, amongst others, that this is likely to increase prices.

 

My comment is that if whoever leases this distribution network simply raises prices, it would be digging its own hole.

 

In my view, the main concern of having private operators of the poles and wires, is not higher prices  (which may happen) but not continuing to invest sensibly in them.  In fact, there needs to be a substantial investment, due to the tendency for electricity generation no longer to be concentrated in a small number of large generators, but on a large number of small generators, some of which may provide extra energy back to the grid and others not.  The can lead to lack of balance in the flow of electric current and a higher difficulty in prediting demand, which is necessary in the planning of the grid itself.

 

This is a completely different model than the past and is a substantial risk to the new operators who are yet to be chosen.

 

I hope that the NSW government, and those of the other states and territories, be careful that there won't be an incentive for those homes and businesses who have invested in PV panels to disconnect completely.  On the contrary, not only should there be an incentive to remain connected, but also an assurance that the new operators invest in the infrastructure necessary to enable the revolution in this industry that is clear has already started.

 

 

L-Enerġija fil-Futur

 

Sar komuni f'diversi pajjiżi ta' madwar id-dinja, li dawk li huma konsumaturi tal-enerġija elettrika jinvestu f'apparat li jiġġenera l-elettriku mix-xemx, megħjuna minn sussidji mill-gvern tal-pajjiż.  Dan huwa minnu kemm fl-Awstralja, fejn kien hemm 1.4 miljun sistema installati sal-aħħar tal-2014,1 kif ukoll f'Malta u bosta pajjiżi oħra madwar id-dinja.  Dan huwa fattur ewlieni wara t-tnaqqis fil-konsum tal-enerġija elettrika fis-Suq Nazzjonali tal-Elettriku tal-Awstralja (li jipprovdi lill-istati u territorji kollha minbarra West Australia u n-Northern Territory) fl-aħħar ftit snin.2

 

Il-ġenerazzjoni sostenibbli tal-elettriku tista' tgħid li hi maqsuma bejn sorsi li huma kostanti, bħall-ilma maħżun wara diga, u dawk li mhumiex kostanti, bħax-xemx u r-riħ.  Biex dawn tal-aħħar ikunu jistgħu jitqiesi bħala sostituti kompluti għall-ġenerazzjoni minn sorsi mhux sostenibbli, bħall-faħam u ż-żejt, irid ikun hemm mod kif enerġija żejda (iġġenerat waqt il-ġurnata, jew meta r-riħ qed jonfoħ) tiġi maħżuna w użata biss waqt il-lejl jew meta m'hemmx riħ.

 

Diversi teknoloġiji ġew proposti għal din il-ħażna temporanja, li tinvolvi bdil minn forma tal-enerġija għal oħra.  Per eżempju, fil-batteriji, it-trasformazzjoni iwassal għal enerġija kimika; fil-ħażna tal-ilma fl-għoli, issir potenzjal tal-gravità; f'diski ta' massa kbira jduru b'veloċità għolja, issir momentum angulari.

 

Għalkemm il-fiżika ta' warajhom hija magħrufa, ma kellna l-ebda teknoloġija li ġiet użata kummerċjalment b'mod estensiv għall-ħażna tal-enerġija ġġenerat b'mod sostenibbli minn sorsi mhux kostanti.  Dan wassal għall-argument li għalkemm l-enerġija sostenibbli hija ideja tajba, xorta waħda jibqa' jkun hemm il-ħtieġa tal-ġeneraturi tradizzjonali (faħam, żejt jew nukleari) li biss jistgħu jiggarantixxu l-provvista (baseload power).

 

Dan jista' jinbidel dalwaqt.

 

Ftit ġimgħat ilu, kien hemm dikjarazzjoni3  minn Elon Musk, Kap Eżekuttiv ta' Tesla Motors, kumpannija magħrufa li tipproduċi karrozzi lussużi u sportivi li jaħdmu esklussivament bl-elettriku.  Dan stqarr li iktar tard din is-sena, il-kumpannija tiegħu se tkun f'pożizzjoni li toffri batteriji li jkunu kapaċi jaħżnu l-enerġija li djar u intrapriżi jkunu ġġeneraw bil-pannelli fotovoltaiċi.  Kompla li ma jkunx hemm bżonn iktar li jkunu mqabbdin mal-grid, li hi s-sistema ta' distribuzzjoni tal-enerġija elettrika.

 

Fl-aħħarnett, bassar li sistema ta' batteriji għal dar tipika tkun faċilment ġustifikabbli mill-prezzjijiet tal-elettriku fl-Awstralja.

 

Naturalment, din hija biss previżjoni, u din id-dikjarazzjoni saret minn min għandu interess kummerċjali, u għalhekk trid tittieħed b'ħafna kawtela.  Madankollu, nista' ngħid li ma sibtx dik l-istqarrija bħala xi ħaġa ta' barra minn hawn.  Iktar minn hekk, diġà bdejna naraw kumpanniji oħra bħall-AGL ilestu biex joffru xi ħaġa simili.4

 

Fl-Awstralja spiss nisimgħu li l-prezzijiet għall-provvista tal-elettriku huma għoljin ħafna, u li waħda mir-raġunijiet għal dan huwa l-investiment żejjed fl-infrastruttura tad-distribuzzjoni, qisha ndurata bid-deheb.5

 

Investiment żejjed, jew bla bżonn, huwa naturalment ħażin, però investiment irid isir, għaliex bħalissa għaddejja rivoluzzjoni kbira fil-provvista tal-elettriku.  Bħal ma semmejt qabel, aktar u aktar djar u intrapriżi qed jinvestu f'pannelli fotovoltaiċi u ġeneraturi sostenibbli oħra. Bil-mod il-mod qed jidħlu karrozzi li jieħdu kurrent elettriku mill-grid b'mod sporadiku.  Dan kollu qed jitfa' pressjoni kbira fuq grid li ma kienx iddiżinjat għalhekk.

 

Jien nistenna li se jkun hemm inklinazzjoni li ħafna nies li għandhom il-pannelli fotovoltajiċi jieħdu vantaġġ minn dawn il-batteriji biex jinqatgħu komplatement mill-grid.  Dan mhix neċessarjament żvilupp pożittiv, anke jekk ikun ta' vantaġġ ekonomiku għalihom.

 

Sal-lum, il-problema kienet li ma kienx hemm teknoloġija li kienet qed tintuża biex taħżen l-enerġija fuq skala kbira.  Jekk dawn is-sistemi tal-batteriji fid-djar u l-intrapriżi jsiru realtà u d-djar u l-intrapriżi jibqgħu mqabbdin mal-grid, ikunu jistgħu ikomplu jikkontribwixxu l-enerġija żejda tagħhom u jitnaqqas, jekk mhux jitneħħa, l-bżonn li l-kumpanniji l-kbar tal-enerġija elettrika jipprovdu sistemi kbar għall-ħażna.  Dan ikun pass kbir 'il quddiem sabiex il-pajjiż ikun jista' jafda iktar fil-ġenerazzjoni tal-elettriku minn sorsi mhux stabbli.

 

Mill-banda l-oħra, jekk id-djar u l-intrapriżi jinqatgħu għal rashom, dan il-vantaġġ jitneħħa.

 

Il-partit Liberali ta' NSW għadu kif rebaħ l-elezzjoni tal-istat bl-għajta li jikri (lease) s-sistema tad-distribuzzjoni (l-hekk imsejħa 'arbli u wajers') lil operaturi privati u qed jieħu l-passi biex din il-politika tidħol fis-seħħ.  Il-partit Laburista għamel kampanja kontra dan billi qal li, fost l-oħrajn, aktarx iwassal biex jgħolli l-prezzijiet.  

 

Il-kumment tiegħi hu li jekk min jikri din is-sistema tad-distribuzzjoni sempliċement jgħolli l-prezzijiet, ikun qed iħaffer it-tebut tiegħu stess.

 

Fl-opinjoni tiegħi, il-biża prinċipali li jkollok sidien privati tal-arbli u tal-wajers, mhux li jogħlew il-prezzijiet (li jista' jiġri), imma li ma jibqgħux jinvestu bis-sens fl-arbli u l-wajers.  Fil-fatt, hemm bżonn investiment sostanzjali, minħabba t-tendenza li l-ġenerazzjoni tal-elettriku ma tibqax ikkonċentrata f'numru żgħir ta' ġeneraturi kbar, imma fuq numru kbir ta' ġeneraturi żgħar li wħud minnhom jistgħu jipprovdu enerġija żejda lura lejn il-grid u oħrajn le.  Dan jista' jwassal għal żbilanċ fil-ġarr tal-kurrent eletriku u diffikultà akbar fil-previżjonijiet tad-domanda, li hu bżonnjuż għall-ippjanar tal-grid innifsu.

 

Dan huwa mudell kompletament differenti mill-passat u huwa riskju sostanzjali għall-operaturi l-ġodda li għadhom iridu jintagħżlu.

 

Jien nawgura li l-gvern ta' NSW, u l-oħrajn ta' stati u territorji oħra, joqogħdu attenti li ma jkunx hemm inċentiv biex dawk id-djar u l-intrapriżi li investew fil-panneli fotovoltaiċi jinqatgħu kompletament.  Għall-kuntrarju, irid ikun hemm mhux biss inċentiv li jibqgħu imqabbdin, imma wkoll assigurazzjoni li l-operaturi jinvestu fl-infrastruttura neċessarja biex isseħħ ir-rivoluzzjoni f'din l-industrija li huwa ċar li diġà bdiet.

 

 

 

1Clean Energy Australia Report 2014, Clean Energy Council, p7

2ibid., p24

3http://fortune.com/2015/05/06/elon-musk-tesla-home-battery/, retrieved 29/6/2015

4http://www.afr.com/business/energy/solar-energy/agl-energy-offers-storage-batteries-to-customers-with-solar-power-20150501-1mxsnc, retrieved 29/6/2015

5http://grattan.edu.au/news/the-end-of-the-gold-plated-electricity-network/, retrieved 29/6/2015