Energy in the Future -- L-Enerġija fil-Futur

Energy in the Future

 

Around the world, it's become common for electrical energy consumers to invest in equipment that generates electricity from the sun, helped by subsidies from the country's government.  This was the case in Australia, where there were 1.4 million systems installed by the end of 2014,1 as well as in Malta and several other countries around the world.  This has been a major factor in the reduction in consumption of electrical energy in the National Electricity Market of Australia (which serves all states and territories except West Australia and the Northern Territory) in the last few years.2

 

You could divide the sustainable generation of electricity into sources that are constant, as is water stored behind a dam, and those that are variable, such as the sun and wind.  For the latter to be considered complete substitutes for generation from unsustainable sources, like coal and oil, excess energy generated during the day, or when the wind is blowing, needs to be stored and used during the night or when there is no wind.

 

A few technologies have been proposed for this temporary storage, which involves a change from one form of energy to another.  For example, in batteries, this transformation is to chemical energy; in the storage of water at a height, it become potential energy; in high mass disks rotating at high speed, it becomes angular momentum.

 

Although the physics behind these technologies is known, none have been widely deployed commercially for the storage of sustainable energy from variable sources.  This has led to the argument that although sustainable energy is a good idea, we will still need the traditional generators (coal, oil or nuclear) which are able to guarantee supply (baseload power).

 

This may change soon.

 

A few weeks ago, there was a statement3 by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, a well-known company that produces luxury sport cars that work exclusively by electricity.  He declared that later on this year, his company will be in a position to offer to homes and businesses batteries that are able to store energy that they would have generated by photovoltaic panels.  He continued that the would no longer be a need to be connected to the grid, which is the system for distribution of electrical energy.

 

Finally, he predicted that this system of batteries for homes will be easily justifiable by the prices for electricity in Australia.

 

Naturally this is just a prediction, and this declaration has been made by someone who has a commercial interest, and so needs to be taken cautiously.  However, I can say I did not find anything outlandish with this declaration.  Furthermore, we've already started to see other companies like AGL getting ready to offer something similar.4

 

In Australia, we often hear that electricity prices are very high, and that one of the reasons for this is  the over-investment in the distribution infrastructure, the so-called gold plating.5

Over- or unnecessary investment is naturally a bad thing, however investment needs to happen, as currently there is a revolution under way in the supply of electricity.  As I mentioned before, more and more homes and businesses are investing in photovoltaic panels and other sustainable generators.  Slowly slowly, vehicles that run on electricity are being sporadically connected to the grid.  All of this is putting pressure on the grid which was not designed for this.

 

I expect there will be the inclination of many people who have photovoltaic panels to take advantage of these batteries to disconnect from the grid.  This is not necessarily a positive development, even if it may bring them economic advantages.

 

Until today, the problem has been that there was no technology that was being used to store energy on a big scale.  If these battery systems in homes and businesses become reality, and the homes and businesses continue to be connected to the grid, they can continue to contribute their excess energy, and the need for the large providers of electricity to provide their own large scale storage will be reduced. if not eliminated.  This would be a huge step forward so the country can place its trust more into the generation of electricity from variable sources.

 

Conversely, if these homes and businesses disconnect, this advantage will disappear.

 

The NSW Liberal Party has just won the state election with a pledge to lease the electrical distribution network (the so-called poles and wires) to private operators and is taking steps to put this policy in place.  The Labor Party campaigned against this policy by saying, amongst others, that this is likely to increase prices.

 

My comment is that if whoever leases this distribution network simply raises prices, it would be digging its own hole.

 

In my view, the main concern of having private operators of the poles and wires, is not higher prices  (which may happen) but not continuing to invest sensibly in them.  In fact, there needs to be a substantial investment, due to the tendency for electricity generation no longer to be concentrated in a small number of large generators, but on a large number of small generators, some of which may provide extra energy back to the grid and others not.  The can lead to lack of balance in the flow of electric current and a higher difficulty in prediting demand, which is necessary in the planning of the grid itself.

 

This is a completely different model than the past and is a substantial risk to the new operators who are yet to be chosen.

 

I hope that the NSW government, and those of the other states and territories, be careful that there won't be an incentive for those homes and businesses who have invested in PV panels to disconnect completely.  On the contrary, not only should there be an incentive to remain connected, but also an assurance that the new operators invest in the infrastructure necessary to enable the revolution in this industry that is clear has already started.

 

 

L-Enerġija fil-Futur

 

Sar komuni f'diversi pajjiżi ta' madwar id-dinja, li dawk li huma konsumaturi tal-enerġija elettrika jinvestu f'apparat li jiġġenera l-elettriku mix-xemx, megħjuna minn sussidji mill-gvern tal-pajjiż.  Dan huwa minnu kemm fl-Awstralja, fejn kien hemm 1.4 miljun sistema installati sal-aħħar tal-2014,1 kif ukoll f'Malta u bosta pajjiżi oħra madwar id-dinja.  Dan huwa fattur ewlieni wara t-tnaqqis fil-konsum tal-enerġija elettrika fis-Suq Nazzjonali tal-Elettriku tal-Awstralja (li jipprovdi lill-istati u territorji kollha minbarra West Australia u n-Northern Territory) fl-aħħar ftit snin.2

 

Il-ġenerazzjoni sostenibbli tal-elettriku tista' tgħid li hi maqsuma bejn sorsi li huma kostanti, bħall-ilma maħżun wara diga, u dawk li mhumiex kostanti, bħax-xemx u r-riħ.  Biex dawn tal-aħħar ikunu jistgħu jitqiesi bħala sostituti kompluti għall-ġenerazzjoni minn sorsi mhux sostenibbli, bħall-faħam u ż-żejt, irid ikun hemm mod kif enerġija żejda (iġġenerat waqt il-ġurnata, jew meta r-riħ qed jonfoħ) tiġi maħżuna w użata biss waqt il-lejl jew meta m'hemmx riħ.

 

Diversi teknoloġiji ġew proposti għal din il-ħażna temporanja, li tinvolvi bdil minn forma tal-enerġija għal oħra.  Per eżempju, fil-batteriji, it-trasformazzjoni iwassal għal enerġija kimika; fil-ħażna tal-ilma fl-għoli, issir potenzjal tal-gravità; f'diski ta' massa kbira jduru b'veloċità għolja, issir momentum angulari.

 

Għalkemm il-fiżika ta' warajhom hija magħrufa, ma kellna l-ebda teknoloġija li ġiet użata kummerċjalment b'mod estensiv għall-ħażna tal-enerġija ġġenerat b'mod sostenibbli minn sorsi mhux kostanti.  Dan wassal għall-argument li għalkemm l-enerġija sostenibbli hija ideja tajba, xorta waħda jibqa' jkun hemm il-ħtieġa tal-ġeneraturi tradizzjonali (faħam, żejt jew nukleari) li biss jistgħu jiggarantixxu l-provvista (baseload power).

 

Dan jista' jinbidel dalwaqt.

 

Ftit ġimgħat ilu, kien hemm dikjarazzjoni3  minn Elon Musk, Kap Eżekuttiv ta' Tesla Motors, kumpannija magħrufa li tipproduċi karrozzi lussużi u sportivi li jaħdmu esklussivament bl-elettriku.  Dan stqarr li iktar tard din is-sena, il-kumpannija tiegħu se tkun f'pożizzjoni li toffri batteriji li jkunu kapaċi jaħżnu l-enerġija li djar u intrapriżi jkunu ġġeneraw bil-pannelli fotovoltaiċi.  Kompla li ma jkunx hemm bżonn iktar li jkunu mqabbdin mal-grid, li hi s-sistema ta' distribuzzjoni tal-enerġija elettrika.

 

Fl-aħħarnett, bassar li sistema ta' batteriji għal dar tipika tkun faċilment ġustifikabbli mill-prezzjijiet tal-elettriku fl-Awstralja.

 

Naturalment, din hija biss previżjoni, u din id-dikjarazzjoni saret minn min għandu interess kummerċjali, u għalhekk trid tittieħed b'ħafna kawtela.  Madankollu, nista' ngħid li ma sibtx dik l-istqarrija bħala xi ħaġa ta' barra minn hawn.  Iktar minn hekk, diġà bdejna naraw kumpanniji oħra bħall-AGL ilestu biex joffru xi ħaġa simili.4

 

Fl-Awstralja spiss nisimgħu li l-prezzijiet għall-provvista tal-elettriku huma għoljin ħafna, u li waħda mir-raġunijiet għal dan huwa l-investiment żejjed fl-infrastruttura tad-distribuzzjoni, qisha ndurata bid-deheb.5

 

Investiment żejjed, jew bla bżonn, huwa naturalment ħażin, però investiment irid isir, għaliex bħalissa għaddejja rivoluzzjoni kbira fil-provvista tal-elettriku.  Bħal ma semmejt qabel, aktar u aktar djar u intrapriżi qed jinvestu f'pannelli fotovoltaiċi u ġeneraturi sostenibbli oħra. Bil-mod il-mod qed jidħlu karrozzi li jieħdu kurrent elettriku mill-grid b'mod sporadiku.  Dan kollu qed jitfa' pressjoni kbira fuq grid li ma kienx iddiżinjat għalhekk.

 

Jien nistenna li se jkun hemm inklinazzjoni li ħafna nies li għandhom il-pannelli fotovoltajiċi jieħdu vantaġġ minn dawn il-batteriji biex jinqatgħu komplatement mill-grid.  Dan mhix neċessarjament żvilupp pożittiv, anke jekk ikun ta' vantaġġ ekonomiku għalihom.

 

Sal-lum, il-problema kienet li ma kienx hemm teknoloġija li kienet qed tintuża biex taħżen l-enerġija fuq skala kbira.  Jekk dawn is-sistemi tal-batteriji fid-djar u l-intrapriżi jsiru realtà u d-djar u l-intrapriżi jibqgħu mqabbdin mal-grid, ikunu jistgħu ikomplu jikkontribwixxu l-enerġija żejda tagħhom u jitnaqqas, jekk mhux jitneħħa, l-bżonn li l-kumpanniji l-kbar tal-enerġija elettrika jipprovdu sistemi kbar għall-ħażna.  Dan ikun pass kbir 'il quddiem sabiex il-pajjiż ikun jista' jafda iktar fil-ġenerazzjoni tal-elettriku minn sorsi mhux stabbli.

 

Mill-banda l-oħra, jekk id-djar u l-intrapriżi jinqatgħu għal rashom, dan il-vantaġġ jitneħħa.

 

Il-partit Liberali ta' NSW għadu kif rebaħ l-elezzjoni tal-istat bl-għajta li jikri (lease) s-sistema tad-distribuzzjoni (l-hekk imsejħa 'arbli u wajers') lil operaturi privati u qed jieħu l-passi biex din il-politika tidħol fis-seħħ.  Il-partit Laburista għamel kampanja kontra dan billi qal li, fost l-oħrajn, aktarx iwassal biex jgħolli l-prezzijiet.  

 

Il-kumment tiegħi hu li jekk min jikri din is-sistema tad-distribuzzjoni sempliċement jgħolli l-prezzijiet, ikun qed iħaffer it-tebut tiegħu stess.

 

Fl-opinjoni tiegħi, il-biża prinċipali li jkollok sidien privati tal-arbli u tal-wajers, mhux li jogħlew il-prezzijiet (li jista' jiġri), imma li ma jibqgħux jinvestu bis-sens fl-arbli u l-wajers.  Fil-fatt, hemm bżonn investiment sostanzjali, minħabba t-tendenza li l-ġenerazzjoni tal-elettriku ma tibqax ikkonċentrata f'numru żgħir ta' ġeneraturi kbar, imma fuq numru kbir ta' ġeneraturi żgħar li wħud minnhom jistgħu jipprovdu enerġija żejda lura lejn il-grid u oħrajn le.  Dan jista' jwassal għal żbilanċ fil-ġarr tal-kurrent eletriku u diffikultà akbar fil-previżjonijiet tad-domanda, li hu bżonnjuż għall-ippjanar tal-grid innifsu.

 

Dan huwa mudell kompletament differenti mill-passat u huwa riskju sostanzjali għall-operaturi l-ġodda li għadhom iridu jintagħżlu.

 

Jien nawgura li l-gvern ta' NSW, u l-oħrajn ta' stati u territorji oħra, joqogħdu attenti li ma jkunx hemm inċentiv biex dawk id-djar u l-intrapriżi li investew fil-panneli fotovoltaiċi jinqatgħu kompletament.  Għall-kuntrarju, irid ikun hemm mhux biss inċentiv li jibqgħu imqabbdin, imma wkoll assigurazzjoni li l-operaturi jinvestu fl-infrastruttura neċessarja biex isseħħ ir-rivoluzzjoni f'din l-industrija li huwa ċar li diġà bdiet.

 

 

 

1Clean Energy Australia Report 2014, Clean Energy Council, p7

2ibid., p24

3http://fortune.com/2015/05/06/elon-musk-tesla-home-battery/, retrieved 29/6/2015

4http://www.afr.com/business/energy/solar-energy/agl-energy-offers-storage-batteries-to-customers-with-solar-power-20150501-1mxsnc, retrieved 29/6/2015

5http://grattan.edu.au/news/the-end-of-the-gold-plated-electricity-network/, retrieved 29/6/2015