Grexit or not -- Grexit jew le

Grexit or not

 

Over the past few years, we've been hearing about EU country members that find themselves in financial difficulties.  Those that have been mentioned most were Ireland, Italy, Spain and for the longest period of time, Greece.  The word Grexit is used to signify a possible consequence of these financial difficulties: the need for Greece to leave the EU's monetary unit, the Euro, and re-introduce the drachma, its erstwhile currency.

 

These difficulties really boil down to one attitude of governments that lead them, that is the tendency of government that during a year spends more than its revenue, called a deficit.

 

To finance this deficit, a government needs to borrow money, called debt.  For this privilege, the government needs to pay interest to its creditors and when the contract of the debt expires, the debt needs to be repaid in full.

 

To put the cherry on the cake, these governments (and others) did this year after year after year, even for decades.  Hence, debt just grew and grew, and got so big that the governments no longer found idiots who were ready to lend them money at low interest rates, and went begging to huge financial agencies, like the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the ECB (European Central bank), as well as the European Commission, the so-called 'troika'.

 

This debt grew, notwithstanding that the Stability and Growth Pact signed by all EU countries in 1998 states that debt should not grow to more than 60% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product).  Until the end of 2014, Greece had debt equivalent to 177% of GDP, the second worst country in the world in this statistic after Japan.  As a comparison, the average in Europe was 91%, Malta had 67% and Australia 28%.1

 

How Greece ended in this state, theses will be written.  I'm no economist, however it seems that many present actors in this drama, as well as some others, contributed to the brew.2

 

You can understand why Greece is in the news bulletins.  The country has already twice obtained help from the troika (in 2010 and 2011) and this year has sought help for a third time.  This seems to be a drama that never ends.

 

EU countries have already decided to offer help to Greece for a third time, with hard conditions, and the Greek government is having to eat its words of even just a few days ago.  Indeed, quite a few comments were heard coming from Greece that weren't really of encouragement to those considering providing assistance to that country.

 

The first comment I have in mind was one that was persistently made, that Greece may decide not to repay its debts, a situation called default.  In fact, this has already happened this month.3  If Greece does not commit itself to repay its debt, who will take the risk of lending it any more?

 

There was another comment during an interview in the Greek streets, that the Greeks did not know what debt was being undertaken by their government.  I don't this as a valid argument.  In a democratic system, the people elect their government, which has the authority to act on their and the country's behalf, for better of for worse.

We've seen scenes of people queuing outside banks trying to get some cash to be able to survive, desperately moving from one ATM to another as the money supply was running out.  It was pitiful to watch the pain of people and pensioners who live from cheque to cheque.

 

Nevertheless it should also be said that the countries from which help is being sought also have their own pensioners.  Not all countries are as rich as Germany and Norway.

 

Until the end of 2012, in Malta the non-contributory pension of a couple where only one person is eligible consisted of €4,200 while widows had €5200.4  Pensioners under the contributory system in 2014 were paid an average of €7500 a year5 and with the two thirds system can take a maximum of  €14,500.6

 

In Greece, the average pensioner takes €8,700.7

 

I am not against a country being helped in its hour of need, even if this country cannot be called poor.  Everyone can end up in need for some reason or another.

 

Nevertheless I get taken aback hearing harsh words coming out of Greece about Europe.8  Malta also forms part of this continent, and has decided to contribute up to €511 million to the ESM (European Stability Mechanism), of which €58 million have already been paid.9  Every Euro contributed is a Euro that could have gone to Maltese pensioners.  From this fund, Greece can benefit, if it accepts.

 

This is apart from the guarantee made by Malta, together with the other countries of the EU, from which Greece has already benefited.

 

Therefore, I very much wish that the foolish words that have been heard by these Maltese neighbours just cease.  It's true that they originate from people who are suffering, and also that they may contain some truth, however those listening have made their own sacrifices, without much fanfare and with positive results.

 

Don't bite the hand that feeds you!

 

 

Grexit jew le

 

Għal dawn l-aħħar snin, ilna nisimgħu dwar pajjiżi tal-Unjoni Ewropea li jinsabu f'diffikultà finanzjarja.  L-iktar li ssemmew kienu l-Irlanda, l-Italja, Spanja u l-iktar fit-tul il-Greċja.  Il-kelma Grexit tintuża biex tirreferi għall-possibiltà li minħabba d-diffikultajiet finanzjarji tagħha, il-Greċja jkollha tħalli l-munita tal-UE l-Ewro, u terġa ddaħħal id-drakma, il-munita li kellha qabel.

 

Dawn id-diffikultajiet tista' tagħsarhom għal attitudni waħda tal-gvernijiet li jmexxuhom, ċioe t-tendenza li l-gvern matul is-sena jonfoq iktar milli jdaħħal, li jissejjaħ defiċit.  

 

Biex jiffinanzja dan id-defiċit, il-gvern irid jissellef il-flus, li jissejjaħ dejn.  Għal dan il-privileġġ, il-gvern irid iħallas l-imgħax lil min qed isellfu u meta jiskadi ż-żmien ta' kull kuntratt tad-dejn, irid iħallsu lura kollu.

 

Biex tgħaxxaqha, dawn il-gvernijiet (u oħrajn) għamlu hekk sena wara sena wara sena, anke għal għexieren ta' snin.  Għalhekk, id-dejn kiber u kiber, u sar tant kbir li l-gvernijiet ma baqgħux isibu mtaten li lesti li jsellfu l-flus iktar b'rati ta' imgħax baxxi, u marru jittalbu mingħand aġenziji kbar finanzjarji, bħall-IMF (International Monetary Fund), l-ECB (European Central Bank) u l-Kummissjoni Ewropea, l'hekk imsejħa trojka.

 

Dan id-dejn kiber, minkejja li regola fil-Patt ta' Stabbiltà u Tkabbir li ffirmaw il-pajjiżi tal-UE fil-1998 tgħid li d-dejn m'għandux jikber iktar minn 60% tal-GDP (Gross Domestic Product - il-Prodott Gross Domestiku).  Sal-aħħar tal-2014, il-Ġreċja kellha dejn daqs 177% tal-GDP, it-tieni l-agħar pajjiż fid-dinja f'din l-istatistika wara l-Ġappun.  Bħala daqsxejn ta' paragun, il-medja tal-Ewropa kienet 91%, Malta kellha 67% u l-Awstralja 28%.1

 

Kif il-Greċja spiċċa f'dan l-istat, għad iridu jinkitbu teżijiet.  Jien m'inix ekonomista, imma jidher li ħafna atturi preżenti ta' din id-drama, kif ukoll xi oħrajn, kollha taw daqqa t'id biex iħawwdu din il-borma.2

 

Tista' tifhimha kif il-Greċja qegħda fl-aħbarijiet.  Il-pajjiż diġà sabet l-għajnuna mingħand it-trojka darbtejn (fl-2010 u l-2011) u din is-sena reġgħet talbet l-għajnuna għat-tielet darba.  Din qisha storja drammatika li ma tispiċċa qatt.

 

Il-pajjiżi tal-UE reġgħu ddeċidew li joffru għajnuna lill-Greċja għat-tielet darba, b'kundizzjonijiet ibsin, u l-gvern Grieg qed ikollu jiekol kliemu anke ta' ftit jiem ilu.  Tassew, instemgħu ħafna kummenti ħerġin mill-Greċja li ma tantx kienu jagħmlu kuraġġ lil min qed jikkonsidra jerġa' jgħin lil dak il-pajjiż.

 

L-ewwel kumment li għandi f'rasi kien wieħed li ngħad b'ċerta persistenza, li l-Greċja tista' tiddeċiedi li ma tħallasx id-dejn tagħha, sitwazzjoni li tissejjaħ default.  Fil-fatt għadha kif għamlet hekk f'dan ix-xahar.3  Jekk il-Greċja ma tikkommettix ruħha biex tħallas lura d-dejn tagħha, min se jieħu r-riskju li jsellifha iktar?

 

Kien hemm kumment li smajt waqt intervista fit-toroq tal-Greċja li l-Griegi ma kinux jafu x'dejn kien qed jidħol għalih il-gvern tagħhom.  Dan ma narahx li huwa argument validu.  F'sistema demokratika, huwa l-poplu li jtella' l-gvern, li għandu l-poter li jitkellem f'ismu u f'isem il-pajjiż, għat-tajjeb u għall-ħażin.

 

Rajna diversi xeni ta' nies fil-kjuwijiet barra l-banek biex jippruvaw joħorġu xi flus biex ikunu jistgħu jgħixu, iddisprati jmorru minn ATM għall-ieħor għax il-flus kienu nixfu.  L-uġigħ tan-nies u tal-pensjonanti li jgħixu minn ċekk għal ċekk iġġiblek ħasra.

 

Biss irid jingħad ukoll li l-pajjiżi li minnhom qed jiġi mitlub l-għajnuna wkoll għandhom il-pensjonanti tagħhom.  Mhux il-pajjiżi kollha huma għonja bħall-Ġermanja u n-Norveġja.  

Sal-aħħar tal-2012, f'Malta l-pensjoni non-kontributorja ta' koppja fejn wieħed biss huwa eliġibbli għaliha, jingħata €4200 fis-sena, mentri r-romol jieħdu €5200.4  Pensjonanti taħt is-sistema kontributorja fl-2014 tħallsu medja ta' €7500 fis-sena5 u bis-sistema taż-żewġ terzi jistgħu jieħdu massimu ta' €14,500.6

 

Fil-Greċja, pensjonant medju jieħu madwar €8,700 fis-sena.7

 

Jien m'inix kontra li pajjiż jiġi megħjun fis-siegħa tal-prova tiegħu, anke jekk dak il-pajjiż ma jistax jissejjaħ fqir.  Kulħadd jista' jiġi bżonn l-għajnuna għal xi raġuni jew l-oħra.

 

Madankollu neħodha bi kbira li nisma' kummenti ħorox ħerġin mill-Greċja fuq l-Ewropa.8  Malta wkoll tifforma parti minn dan il-kontinent, u ddeċidiet li tikkontribwixxi sa €511 miljun lill-ESM (European Stability Mechanism - Mekkaniżmu għall-Istabbilta Ewropea), li minnhom tħallsu €58 miljun.9  Kull Ewro li tat kien Ewro li minflok seta mar għall-pensjonanti Maltin.  Minn dan il-fond se tibbenefika l-Greċja, jekk taċċetta.

 

Dan apparti l-garanziji li għamlet Malta, flimkien mal-pajjiżi l-oħra tal-UE, li minnhom diġa bbenefikat il-Greċja.

 

Għalhekk, jien nixtieq li dan il-ħafna kliem żejjed li smajna minn dawn il-ġirien tal-Maltin jieqaf.  Veru li ġej minn nies li qed ibatu, u anke li jista' jkun hemm xi verità fihom, imma min qed jisma' qed jagħmel is-sagrifiċċji tiegħu wkoll, mingħajr ħafna daqq ta' trombi u b'riżultati pożittivi.

 

Iddardarx l-għajn li tixrob minnha!

 

 

1http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp, retrieved 13/7/2015

2http://www.vox.com/2015/7/6/8900659/greek-crisis-blame, retrieved 13/7/2015

3http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp, retrieved 13/7/2015

4Country Report Malta 2007-2012, Euromod, Pauline Saliba

5Malta in Figures 2014, National Statistics Office

6http://www.msvlife.com/products/retirement/your-state-pension-explained, retrieved 13/7/2015

7Pensions at a Glance 2013, OECD

8http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/06/yanis-varoufakis-some-of-his-best-quotes, retrieved 13/7/2015

9EFSF ESM New Investor Presentation, July 2015