Quo vadis, PN?

 

As you know, there was recently a political earthquake in Malta caused by the resignation of the then Prime Minister Joseph Muscat, consequential to political decisions that had been taken during the investigation into the brutal killing of Daphne Caruana Galizia (DCG).

 

Many Maltese people are still following minute by minute the evidence coming out of the Maltese courts, and it seems that investigations are still ongoing.  The consequences of what is being said are still playing out, such as the resignation of the Minister for Gozo Justyne Caruana.

 

Now that the legal cases seems to have found their own rhythm, attention has more or less shifted to the Nationalist Party (PN), which had much to gain politically from the alleged involvement of several members of the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) with people allegedly directly involved in the killing.  This political advantage does not seem to have materialised, and considerable attention is being given to the PN leader, Adrian Delia.

 

An opinion poll, published in MaltaToday of 2nd February about who from the major political parties in Malta are most trusted, indicates that Delia is trusted by only 13.5% of participants, whereas Robert Abela, the leader of the Labour Party (PL) and new Prime Minister, has 62.5%.  This outcome is worse than the result of the previous polling (21.3% for Delia, 50.5% for Muscat) that had been carried out in 2019.

 

Even amongst PN supporters, Delia’s popularity is low (34%) and that of Abela is surprisingly high (22.5%).  In contrast, Abela’s popularity amongst PL supporters is 95.5%.1

 

Leading the PN since October 2017, after the resignation of Simon Busuttil triggered by the electoral drubbing of that year (PN 43.68%, PL 55.01%), Delia led the PN to defeat at the Local Council elections of 2019 (PN 39.8%, PL 57.96%) and that for Members of the European Parliament (PN 37.9%, PL 54.29%).2  Up to now, Delia has not led his party into a general election.

 

Dr Delia seems never to have had the fortune of gaining the wide support that all leaders have after the democratic choice in the party has been made.  It is clear he has the support by a majority of party members and council members of the PN (52.7% of the members in 2017 when elected leader, 67.5% of counsellors in 2019 when an internal vote of confidence was taken)3 4.

 

It is clear there is a strong minority in the party, including amongst members of parliament, for whom this leader rubs them up the wrong way.  There could be several reasons, and probably include ugly allegations that had been made in his regard by DCG herself when she accused him of being involved in a prostitution ring in London5, which has been denied by Delia.

 

My comment is that it’s the job of the party leader to unite his party and be competitive to win elections.  To date there does not seem to be the slightest whiff of this happening.

It is true that Dr Delia has won internal votes in the party, however he and the party he represents need to win back votes that today vote for the opposite party without any hesitation.  Some time ago, he criticised those who oppose him within the PN with the comment that the party is not theirs.  I would add using the same logic that the party is not his either, and ask what would happen if the next general election in 2022 will result in a drubbing similar to the last two?  Will it be said that all the warning signs were ignored?

 

I’ve written another time6 about the image of Messiah that many party supporters seem to attribute to the leader of their party, of any hue.  It is an optimistic image that is perfectly understandable, however it is also dangerous.

 

A country’s citizens are always nervous in awaiting the results of elections, and party supporters probably more rather than less so.  Here in Australia, general elections for the federal parliament have a term of three years, whereas in Malta the term is for five.  The consequences of electoral results in Malta are thus more long lasting.

 

---------------------------

 

Bħal ma tafu, kien hemm terremot politiku reċentement f’Malta kkawżat mir-riżenja tal-Prim Ministru ta’ dakinhar Joseph Muscat, konsegwenza ta’ deċiżjonijiet politiċi li kienu ttieħdu waqt l-investigazzjonijiet fuq il-qtil brutali ta’ Daphne Caruana Galizia (DCG).

 

Ħafna Maltin għadhom isegwu minuta b’minuta x-xiehda li qiegħda toħroġ fil-Qrati Maltin, u jidher li l-investigazzjonijiet għadhom għaddejjin.  Il-konsegwenzi ta’ dak li qed jingħad għadhom iseħħu, bħar-riżenja tal-Ministru għal Għawdex Justyne Caruana.

 

Issa li l-kawżi legali jidhru li qabdu ċertu ritmu, xi ftit jew wisq l-attenzjoni daret fuq il-Partit Nazzjonalista (PN), li kellu ħafna x’jiggwadanja politikament mill-allegat involviment ta’ diversi membri tal-uffiċċju tal-Prim Ministru (OPM) ma’ min huwa allegatament li kellu direttament x’jaqsam mal-qtil.  Dan il-vantaġġ politiku jidher li ma mmaterjalizzax, u ħafna attenzjoni qed jingħata lill-kap tal-PN, Dr. Adrian Delia.

 

Stħarriġ tal-opinjoni pubblika dwar min mill-kapijiet tal-partiti l-kbar f’Malta huwa l-iktar fdat, li ġie ppubblikat fil-MaltaToday tat-tnejn ta’ Frar li għadda, jidher li Delia huwa fdat biss minn 13.5% ta’ min ipparteċipa, filwaqt li Robert Abela, il-kap tal-Partit Laburista (PL) u Prim Ministru l-ġdid, għandu 62.5%.  Dan ir-riżultat għal Delia huwa agħar mir-riżultat tal-istħarriġ ta’ qabel (21.3% għal Delia, u 50.5% għal Muscat) li kien sar fl-2019.

 

Anke fost il-partitarji Nazzjonalisti, il-popolarità ta’ Delia huwa baxx (34%), u dak ta’ Abela huwa sorprendentement għoli (22.5%).  B’kuntrast, il-popolarità ta’ Abela fil-partitarji tal-PL huwa ta’ 95.5%.1

 

Kemm ilu kap tal-PN f’Ottubru tal-2017, wara riżenja ta’ Simon Busuttil konsegwenza tat-tkaxkira fl-elezzjoni ta’ dik is-sena (PN 43.68%, PL 55.04%), Delia mexxa lill-PN għal telfa fil-Kunsilli Lokali tal-2019 (PN 39.8%, PL 57.96%) u għall-membri parlamentari fl-Unjoni Ewropea (PN 37.9%, PL 54.29%).2  S’issa, Delia għadu ma mexxiex lill-partit tiegħu f’elezzjoni ġenerali.

 

Dr Delia jidher li qatt ma kellu x-xorti li jgawdi l-appoġġ mifrux li jkollu kull kap wara li tkun għaddiet l-għażla demokratika fil-partit.  Huwa ċar li għandu l-appoġġ tal-maġġoranza tal-membri u tal-kunsilliera tal-PN (52.7% tal-membri fl-2017 meta sar kap, 67.5% tal-kunsilliera fl-2019 meta sar vot ta’ kunfidenza interna)3 4.

 

Huwa ċar ukoll li hemm minoranza qawwija fil-partit, inklużi membri tal-parlament, li għalihom l-kap tagħhom ma jinżlilhomx.  Ir-raġunijiet jistgħu ikunu varji, u aktarx jinkludu allegazzjonijiet koroh li kienu saru fil-konfront tiegħu minn DCG innifisha meta akkużatu li kellu x’jaqsam mal-prostituzzjoni f’Londra5, ħaġa li Delia ċaħad.

 

Il-kumment tiegħi hu li x-xogħol tal-kap tal-partit huwa wieħed li jgħaqqad lill-partit tiegħu u jkun kompetittiv biex jirbaħ l-elezzjonijiet.  Dan s’issa ma jidher li m’hemm lanqas riħa fil-bogħod tagħha.

 

Huwa veru li Dr.Delia rebaħ il-voti interni fil-partit, imma hu u l-partit li jirrappreżenta jridu jirbħu lura voti li llum mingħajr eżitazzjoni jivvutaw lill-partit l-oppost.  Ftit ilu, ikkritika lil dawk li jopponuh fil-PN bil-kumment li l-partit mhux tagħhom.  Jien inżid li b’dan ir-raġunament il-partit mhux tiegħu lanqas, u nistaqsi x’se jiġri jekk l-elezzjoni ġenerali li ġejja fl-2022 terġa tirriżulta fi tkaxkira oħra bħat-tnejn li għaddew?  Jingħad li ġew injorati s-sinjali kollha li dehru?

 

Diġà ktibt darb’oħra6 dwar ix-xbiha ta’ Messija li ħafna partitarji jidhru li jattribwixxu għall-kap tal-partit tagħhom, ta’ kull lewn.  Hija xbiha ottimista li tinftiehem, imma hija wkoll perikoluża.

 

Iċ-ċittadini tal-pajjiżi dejjem ikunu nervużi jistennew ir-riżultat tal-elezzjonijiet, u l-partitarji aktarx xi ftit (jew wisq) iktar.  Hawn l-Awstralja, l-elezzjonijiet ġenerali għall-parlament federali għandhom terminu ta’ tliet snin, filwaqt li f’Malta t-terminu huwa ta’ ħamsa.  Il-konsegwenzi ta’ riżultat elettorali f’Malti għalhekk huma iktar dejjiema.

 

 

 

1https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/data_and_surveys/100114/abela_delia_trust_barometer_february_2020#.Xks1QeFS9wA, retrieved 18/2/2020

2ara https://electoral.gov.mt/

3https://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2017-09-16/local-news/Voting-ends-in-PN-leadership-election-new-leader-to-be-announced-in-the-early-hours-of-the-morning-6736179104, retrieved 18/2/2020

4https://www.tvm.com.mt/en/news/adrian-delia-updated-updated-2-adrian-delia-wins-vote-of-confidence-with-67-5-vote-delia-wins-vote-of-confidence-with-67-5-vote-delia-arrives-at-dar-centrali-result-on-his-future-to-be-announced-so/, retrieved 18/2/2020

5https://daphnecaruanagalizia.com/2017/08/around-1-million-money-london-prostitution-processed-adrian-delias-barclays-international-account-jersey/, retrieved 18/2/2020

6The Voice of the Maltese, No. 113, Perspettiva

1https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/data_and_surveys/100114/abela_delia_trust_barometer_february_2020#.Xks1QeFS9wA, retrieved 18/2/2020

2ara https://electoral.gov.mt/

3https://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2017-09-16/local-news/Voting-ends-in-PN-leadership-election-new-leader-to-be-announced-in-the-early-hours-of-the-morning-6736179104, retrieved 18/2/2020

4https://www.tvm.com.mt/en/news/adrian-delia-updated-updated-2-adrian-delia-wins-vote-of-confidence-with-67-5-vote-delia-wins-vote-of-confidence-with-67-5-vote-delia-arrives-at-dar-centrali-result-on-his-future-to-be-announced-so/, retrieved 18/2/2020

5https://daphnecaruanagalizia.com/2017/08/around-1-million-money-london-prostitution-processed-adrian-delias-barclays-international-account-jersey/, retrieved 18/2/2020

6The Voice of the Maltese, No. 113, Perspettiva

Prevention or cure? -- Prevenzjoni jew kura?

 

In edition 219 of The Voice of the Maltese a month ago, I had written about the personal experience of my family and I while travelling in the south east of Australia during this year’s fire tragedy that was being played out, and being blessed with escaping its worst effects, except for the pervasive smell of smoke, one day of which being a thick fog of smoke.

 

Today I’ll be dealing with the politics of the Australian government’s response.

 

As we know, unfortunately there have been more than 30 deaths of people, 2000 homes lost, an estimated billion creatures perished and eleven million hectares burnt down,1 and the story isn’t yet over.

 

A few years after having come to Australia, another fire tragedy occurred in 2009 named Black Saturday, which was considered the worst fire tragedy in the country.  This had occurred in Victoria when 173 people had perished, that is much more than this time, however the burnt area of land was ‘only’ 400,000 hectares.2  This means that this year, twenty times as much land has been burnt (to date) as then.

 

Fire fighting organisations, all state-based, have been working flat out to do whatever they can, and have had notable successes, however the scale of the problem has shown that the resources they do have are nowhere near where they need to be.

 

The Australian government has recognised there is a great need for assistance, and has delved deep into its pocket and promised the considerable amount of $2 billion over two years to set up an agency whose task is to follow the burning with rebuilding.3  There is also promise of further funds if this is insufficient.  It has also provided the army reserve to assist, and other direct assistance funding.

 

This is all good, and there are also several national and international appeals to raise funds for the necessary rebuilding.

 

The problem I see is that all this work, necessary as it is, only represents the cure.  That is, medicine taken after after the illness.  Where is the prevention, that is to try and prevent disasters like this from occurring?

 

Fires can be lit by lightning, faults in electricity lines or machinery, or by vandals.  There have been several reports and declarations including by heads in the Australian government, that blamed vandalism for these disasters, however in fact not more than 1% of the land touched by fire in this season have been attributed to this cause.  It is thought that this time the vast majority of flames were lit by dry lightning.4

 

Another problem is that there is a large quantity of combustible material that is not being removed in time, as was done by the aboriginal population in the time preceding the British colonisation of the continent.  This happened because the colonisers changed the land use to agricultural and set aside traditional knowledge of frequent burning in cold weather, where the risk of fire spreading out of control is low.  Now it seems there is a wave in favour of rediscovering cultural aboriginal traditions, at last.

 

Nevertheless there is another, predominant, problem, that is climate changed caused by carbon pollution.  The problem is that drying is increasing, and mean temperatures are increasing, and so there are limited days in the year when this ‘cold burning’ can occur.

 

This is the principal problem we now face, and is not one that can be resolved quickly, not even if the Australian government follows St Paul, sees the light of the Lord and converts (not that there is any sign of this conversion being nigh).

 

First of all, climate change is a global problem, and requires solutions where countries around the world work hand in hand to resolve.  To be clear, a solution means that first we need to stop adding to the problem over a period of 10-30 years (that is get to a stage where we pollute not more than the ability of the planet to absorb all the emitted pollution) and afterwards continue reducing the pollution.

 

The second problem is that even if all the countries in the planet implement all they promised in the Paris Agreement and stop there, the world is expected not to stop warming in 2100 at 1.5C above pre-industrial times, which was the declared aim, but until 3.0C.5  To date, the world has already warmed by 1C!  It is clear that countries need to redouble their ambition.

 

In fact, what is Australia doing?

 

I remind readers that until mid December 2019, only 2 months ago, Australia was at a conference on this subject in Madrid, arguing that instead of reducing its emissions as promised in the Paris Agreement (reduction of 26-28% from 2005 levels by 2030), it should be allowed to apply a large credit from the previous agreement, that of Kyoto, something that only this country is proposing to apply.

 

If this is carried through, the outcome is the country only needs to carry out 10% of its promised work of emissions reduction, a position that was harshly criticised by the other participating countries.6

 

If not even us, the ones hurting and demonstrably having so much to lose, are not showing any zeal, how are we to convince other countries to do the heavy lifting for us?  Where is the prevention?

 

-------------------------

 

Fil-ħarġa numru 219 ta’ The Voice of the Maltese xahar ilu, kont ktibt dwar l-esperjenza personali tiegħi u tal-familja tiegħi nivvjaġġjaw fix-xlokk tal-Awstralja waqt li t-traġedja tan-nirien ta’ din is-sena kienet qiegħda tiżvolġi, u b’barka kbira rnexxielna niżgiċċaw l-agħar effetti tagħha, ħlief għal riħa persistenti ta’ duħħan, u ġurnata minnhom ċpar folt ta’ duħħan.

 

Illum se nittratta l-politika madwar ir-risposta tal-gvern federal Awstraljan.

 

Bħal ma nafu, diżgrazzjatament kien hemm iktar minn tletin imwiet ta’ persuni, elfejn dar mitlufa, stima ta’ biljun ħlejqa li mietu u ħdax-il miljun ettaru maħruqin,1 u l-istorja għadha ma spiċċatx.

 

Ftit snin wara li konna ġejna l-Awstralja, fl-2009 kienet seħħet traġedja ta’ nirien oħra msejħa s-Sibt l-Iswed, li kienet meqjusa l-agħar traġedja tat-tip tagħha fil-pajjiż.  Din kienet seħħet f’Victoria fejn kienu mietu 173 ruħ, jiġifieri iktar minn din id-darba, imma l-art maħruqa kienet ‘biss’ 400,000 ettaru.2  Jiġifieri din is-sena, inħarqet art iktar minn għoxrin darba (s’issa) dik ta’ dakinhar.

 

L-organizzazzjonijiet tat-tifi tan-nar, ilkoll statali, ilhom jaħdum bis-sħiħ biex jagħmlu li jistgħu, u suċċessi kellhom bis-sħiħ, iżda l-iskala tal-problema wriet li r-riżorsi li għandhom m’għandhiex x’taqsam ma’ x’hemm bżonn.

 

Il-gvern Awstraljan għaraf li hemm bżonn kbir ta’ għajnuna, u daħħal idejħ fil-but sew u wiegħed l-ammont konsiderevoli ta’ $2 biljun fuq medda ta’ sentejn biex titwaqqaf aġenzija li xogħla jkun li terġa tibni mill-ġdid wara l-ħruq.3  Hemm wiegħda oħra ta’ iktar fondi jekk dan ma jkunx biżżejjed.  Ipprovda wkoll riżervisti tal-armata biex jassistu, u fondi oħra ta’ assistenza diretta.

 

Dan kollu huwa tajjeb, u hemm ukoll diversi appelli nazzjonali u internazzjonali biex jinġabru fondi ħalli l-bini mill-ġdid jerġa’ jsir.

 

Il-problema li nara jien hu li dan ix-xogħol, li huwa neċessarju, huwa biss il-kura.  Jiġifieri, azzjoni li tittieħed wara l-marda.  Fejn hi l-prevenzjoni, jiġifieri li nippruvaw inżommu lil diżastru bħal dan milli jseħħ?

 

In-nirien jistgħu jinxtiegħlu minn sajjetti, ħsarat ta’ linji jew makkinarju tal-elettriku, jew minn vandali.  Kien hemm diversi rapporti u stqarrijiet inklużi tal-kapijiet tal-gvern Awstraljan, li waħħlu f’vandali għal dan id-diżastru, imma fil-fatt mhux iktar minn 1% tal-art maħkuma min-nirien ta’ dan l-istaġjun huma attribwiti għal din il-kawża.  Huwa maħsub li din id-darba l-maġġoranza tal-fjammi ġew mixgħula minn sajjetti mingħajr xita.4

 

Problema oħra hi li hemm ħafna materjal kombustibbli li mhux qed jiġi mneħħi fil-ħin, bħal ma kien ikun mill-aboriġeni fiż-żmien ta’ qabel il-kolonizzazzjoni Brittannika tal-kontinent.  Dan għax il-kolonizzaturi bidlu l-użu tal-art għal waħda agrikola u warrbu t-tagħrif tradizzjonali ta’ ħruq ta’ spiss fi staġunijiet kesħin, fejn ir-riskju ta’ tifrix ikun żgħir.  Issa jidher li hemm mewġa favur li nerġgħu nitgħallmu mit-tradizzjonijiet kulturali aboriġeni, saflaħħar.

 

Madankollu hemm problema oħra, predominanti, u din hi t-tibdil tal-klima ħtija tat-tniġġis tal-karbonju.  Il-problema hi li n-nixfa qiegħda tiżdied u t-temperatura medja qiegħda tiżdied, u għalhekk hemm limitu ta’ ġranet fis-sena meta dan il-’ħruq kiesaħ’ jista’ jsir.

 

Din hija l-problema prinċipali li għandna quddiemna, u mhix waħda li se tissolva malajr, lanqas jekk il-gvern Awstraljan jiġrilu bħal San Pawl, jara d-dawl tal-Mulej u jikkonverti (mhux għax hemm xi sinjali li l-konverżjoni hija fil-viċin).

 

L-ewwelnett, it-tibdil tal-klima hija problema globali, u tinħtieġ soluzzjonijiet fejn il-pajjiżi ta’ madwar id-dinja jaħdmu id f’id biex isolvuha.  Biex inkunu ċari, soluzzjoni tfisser li l-ewwel nieqfu nżidu mal-problema fuq medda ta’ 10-30 sena (inniġġsu mhux iktar mill-abbiltà tal-pjaneta li tassorbi t-tniġġis kollu), u mbagħad inkomplu nnaqqsu t-tniġġis.

 

It-tieni problema hi li anke jekk il-pajjiżi kollha tad-dinja jwettqu kull ma wiegħdu fil-Ftehim ta’ Pariġi u jieqfu hemm, id-dinja mhix mistennija li tisħon biss sa 1.5C fl-2100 iktar miż-żminijiet pre-industrijali li hija l-mira dikjarata, imma sa 3.0C.5  Id-dinja diġà saħnet 1C!  Huwa ċar li l-pajjiżi jridu jirduppjaw l-ambiżżjoni tagħhom.

 

Fil-fatt, l-Awstralja x’qed tagħmel?  

 

Infakkar li sa nofs Diċembru tas-sena l-oħra, xahrejn biss ilu, l-Awstralja kienet qiegħda f’konferenza fuq dan is-suġġett f’Madrid, u targumenta li minflok tnaqqas it-tniġġis tagħha daqskemm imwiegħed fil-Ftehim ta’ Pariġi (tnaqqis ta’ 26-28% mil-livelli tas-sena 2020 sa 2030), għandha titħalla tapplika kreditu kbir mill-ftehim ta’ qabel, dak ta’ Kyoto, ħaġa li hi biss qed tipproponi li tapplika.  

 

Jekk dan isir, ifisser li jkollha bżonn tagħmel 10% biss tax-xogħol li hemm bżonn ta’ tnaqqis fit-tniġġiż, pożizzjoni li kienet ikkritikata bl-aħrax mill-pajjiżi parteċipanti l-oħra.6

 

Jekk lanqas aħna li qiegħdin inbatu u għandna x’nitilfu ma nuru ħeġġa, kif se nikkonvinċu ‘l pajjiżi oħra biex jistinkaw għalina?  Fejn hi l-prevenzjoni?

 

1https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australian-bushfires-photos-before-and-after/11854888, retrieved 4/2/2020

2https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/about/black-saturday, retrieved 4/2/2020

3https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-06/scott-morrison-bushfire-recovery-bill/11844096, retrieved 4/2/2020

4https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australias-fires-reveal-arson-not-a-major-cause/11855022, retrieved 4/2/2020

5https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/warming-projections-global-update-dec-2018/, retrieved 4/2/2020

6https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/australia-climate-carry-over-credits-slammed-cop25/11793818, retrieved 4/2/2020

1https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australian-bushfires-photos-before-and-after/11854888, retrieved 4/2/2020

2https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/about/black-saturday, retrieved 4/2/2020

3https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-06/scott-morrison-bushfire-recovery-bill/11844096, retrieved 4/2/2020

4https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australias-fires-reveal-arson-not-a-major-cause/11855022, retrieved 4/2/2020

5https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/warming-projections-global-update-dec-2018/, retrieved 4/2/2020

6https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/australia-climate-carry-over-credits-slammed-cop25/11793818, retrieved 4/2/2020