Prevention or cure? -- Prevenzjoni jew kura?

In edition 219 of The Voice of the Maltese a month ago, I had written about the personal experience of my family and I while travelling in the south east of Australia during this year’s fire tragedy that was being played out, and being blessed with escaping its worst effects, except for the pervasive smell of smoke, one day of which being a thick fog of smoke.

Today I’ll be dealing with the politics of the Australian government’s response.

As we know, unfortunately there have been more than 30 deaths of people, 2000 homes lost, an estimated billion creatures perished and eleven million hectares burnt down,1 and the story isn’t yet over.

A few years after having come to Australia, another fire tragedy occurred in 2009 named Black Saturday, which was considered the worst fire tragedy in the country. This had occurred in Victoria when 173 people had perished, that is much more than this time, however the burnt area of land was ‘only’ 400,000 hectares.2 This means that this year, twenty times as much land has been burnt (to date) as then.

Fire fighting organisations, all state-based, have been working flat out to do whatever they can, and have had notable successes, however the scale of the problem has shown that the resources they do have are nowhere near where they need to be.

The Australian government has recognised there is a great need for assistance, and has delved deep into its pocket and promised the considerable amount of $2 billion over two years to set up an agency whose task is to follow the burning with rebuilding.3 There is also promise of further funds if this is insufficient. It has also provided the army reserve to assist, and other direct assistance funding.

This is all good, and there are also several national and international appeals to raise funds for the necessary rebuilding.

The problem I see is that all this work, necessary as it is, only represents the cure. That is, medicine taken after after the illness. Where is the prevention, that is to try and prevent disasters like this from occurring?

Fires can be lit by lightning, faults in electricity lines or machinery, or by vandals. There have been several reports and declarations including by heads in the Australian government, that blamed vandalism for these disasters, however in fact not more than 1% of the land touched by fire in this season have been attributed to this cause. It is thought that this time the vast majority of flames were lit by dry lightning.4

Another problem is that there is a large quantity of combustible material that is not being removed in time, as was done by the aboriginal population in the time preceding the British colonisation of the continent. This happened because the colonisers changed the land use to agricultural and set aside traditional knowledge of frequent burning in cold weather, where the risk of fire spreading out of control is low. Now it seems there is a wave in favour of rediscovering cultural aboriginal traditions, at last.

Nevertheless there is another, predominant, problem, that is climate changed caused by carbon pollution. The problem is that drying is increasing, and mean temperatures are increasing, and so there are limited days in the year when this ‘cold burning’ can occur.

This is the principal problem we now face, and is not one that can be resolved quickly, not even if the Australian government follows St Paul, sees the light of the Lord and converts (not that there is any sign of this conversion being nigh).

First of all, climate change is a global problem, and requires solutions where countries around the world work hand in hand to resolve. To be clear, a solution means that first we need to stop adding to the problem over a period of 10-30 years (that is get to a stage where we pollute not more than the ability of the planet to absorb all the emitted pollution) and afterwards continue reducing the pollution.

The second problem is that even if all the countries in the planet implement all they promised in the Paris Agreement and stop there, the world is expected not to stop warming in 2100 at 1.5C above pre-industrial times, which was the declared aim, but until 3.0C.5 To date, the world has already warmed by 1C! It is clear that countries need to redouble their ambition.

In fact, what is Australia doing?

I remind readers that until mid December 2019, only 2 months ago, Australia was at a conference on this subject in Madrid, arguing that instead of reducing its emissions as promised in the Paris Agreement (reduction of 26-28% from 2005 levels by 2030), it should be allowed to apply a large credit from the previous agreement, that of Kyoto, something that only this country is proposing to apply.

If this is carried through, the outcome is the country only needs to carry out 10% of its promised work of emissions reduction, a position that was harshly criticised by the other participating countries.6

If not even us, the ones hurting and demonstrably having so much to lose, are not showing any zeal, how are we to convince other countries to do the heavy lifting for us? Where is the prevention?

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Fil-ħarġa numru 219 ta’ The Voice of the Maltese xahar ilu, kont ktibt dwar l-esperjenza personali tiegħi u tal-familja tiegħi nivvjaġġjaw fix-xlokk tal-Awstralja waqt li t-traġedja tan-nirien ta’ din is-sena kienet qiegħda tiżvolġi, u b’barka kbira rnexxielna niżgiċċaw l-agħar effetti tagħha, ħlief għal riħa persistenti ta’ duħħan, u ġurnata minnhom ċpar folt ta’ duħħan.

Illum se nittratta l-politika madwar ir-risposta tal-gvern federal Awstraljan.

Bħal ma nafu, diżgrazzjatament kien hemm iktar minn tletin imwiet ta’ persuni, elfejn dar mitlufa, stima ta’ biljun ħlejqa li mietu u ħdax-il miljun ettaru maħruqin,1 u l-istorja għadha ma spiċċatx.

Ftit snin wara li konna ġejna l-Awstralja, fl-2009 kienet seħħet traġedja ta’ nirien oħra msejħa s-Sibt l-Iswed, li kienet meqjusa l-agħar traġedja tat-tip tagħha fil-pajjiż. Din kienet seħħet f’Victoria fejn kienu mietu 173 ruħ, jiġifieri iktar minn din id-darba, imma l-art maħruqa kienet ‘biss’ 400,000 ettaru.2 Jiġifieri din is-sena, inħarqet art iktar minn għoxrin darba (s’issa) dik ta’ dakinhar.

L-organizzazzjonijiet tat-tifi tan-nar, ilkoll statali, ilhom jaħdum bis-sħiħ biex jagħmlu li jistgħu, u suċċessi kellhom bis-sħiħ, iżda l-iskala tal-problema wriet li r-riżorsi li għandhom m’għandhiex x’taqsam ma’ x’hemm bżonn.

Il-gvern Awstraljan għaraf li hemm bżonn kbir ta’ għajnuna, u daħħal idejħ fil-but sew u wiegħed l-ammont konsiderevoli ta’ $2 biljun fuq medda ta’ sentejn biex titwaqqaf aġenzija li xogħla jkun li terġa tibni mill-ġdid wara l-ħruq.3 Hemm wiegħda oħra ta’ iktar fondi jekk dan ma jkunx biżżejjed. Ipprovda wkoll riżervisti tal-armata biex jassistu, u fondi oħra ta’ assistenza diretta.

Dan kollu huwa tajjeb, u hemm ukoll diversi appelli nazzjonali u internazzjonali biex jinġabru fondi ħalli l-bini mill-ġdid jerġa’ jsir.

Il-problema li nara jien hu li dan ix-xogħol, li huwa neċessarju, huwa biss il-kura. Jiġifieri, azzjoni li tittieħed wara l-marda. Fejn hi l-prevenzjoni, jiġifieri li nippruvaw inżommu lil diżastru bħal dan milli jseħħ?

In-nirien jistgħu jinxtiegħlu minn sajjetti, ħsarat ta’ linji jew makkinarju tal-elettriku, jew minn vandali. Kien hemm diversi rapporti u stqarrijiet inklużi tal-kapijiet tal-gvern Awstraljan, li waħħlu f’vandali għal dan id-diżastru, imma fil-fatt mhux iktar minn 1% tal-art maħkuma min-nirien ta’ dan l-istaġjun huma attribwiti għal din il-kawża. Huwa maħsub li din id-darba l-maġġoranza tal-fjammi ġew mixgħula minn sajjetti mingħajr xita.4

Problema oħra hi li hemm ħafna materjal kombustibbli li mhux qed jiġi mneħħi fil-ħin, bħal ma kien ikun mill-aboriġeni fiż-żmien ta’ qabel il-kolonizzazzjoni Brittannika tal-kontinent. Dan għax il-kolonizzaturi bidlu l-użu tal-art għal waħda agrikola u warrbu t-tagħrif tradizzjonali ta’ ħruq ta’ spiss fi staġunijiet kesħin, fejn ir-riskju ta’ tifrix ikun żgħir. Issa jidher li hemm mewġa favur li nerġgħu nitgħallmu mit-tradizzjonijiet kulturali aboriġeni, saflaħħar.

Madankollu hemm problema oħra, predominanti, u din hi t-tibdil tal-klima ħtija tat-tniġġis tal-karbonju. Il-problema hi li n-nixfa qiegħda tiżdied u t-temperatura medja qiegħda tiżdied, u għalhekk hemm limitu ta’ ġranet fis-sena meta dan il-’ħruq kiesaħ’ jista’ jsir.

Din hija l-problema prinċipali li għandna quddiemna, u mhix waħda li se tissolva malajr, lanqas jekk il-gvern Awstraljan jiġrilu bħal San Pawl, jara d-dawl tal-Mulej u jikkonverti (mhux għax hemm xi sinjali li l-konverżjoni hija fil-viċin).

L-ewwelnett, it-tibdil tal-klima hija problema globali, u tinħtieġ soluzzjonijiet fejn il-pajjiżi ta’ madwar id-dinja jaħdmu id f’id biex isolvuha. Biex inkunu ċari, soluzzjoni tfisser li l-ewwel nieqfu nżidu mal-problema fuq medda ta’ 10-30 sena (inniġġsu mhux iktar mill-abbiltà tal-pjaneta li tassorbi t-tniġġis kollu), u mbagħad inkomplu nnaqqsu t-tniġġis.

It-tieni problema hi li anke jekk il-pajjiżi kollha tad-dinja jwettqu kull ma wiegħdu fil-Ftehim ta’ Pariġi u jieqfu hemm, id-dinja mhix mistennija li tisħon biss sa 1.5C fl-2100 iktar miż-żminijiet pre-industrijali li hija l-mira dikjarata, imma sa 3.0C.5 Id-dinja diġà saħnet 1C! Huwa ċar li l-pajjiżi jridu jirduppjaw l-ambiżżjoni tagħhom.

Fil-fatt, l-Awstralja x’qed tagħmel?

Infakkar li sa nofs Diċembru tas-sena l-oħra, xahrejn biss ilu, l-Awstralja kienet qiegħda f’konferenza fuq dan is-suġġett f’Madrid, u targumenta li minflok tnaqqas it-tniġġis tagħha daqskemm imwiegħed fil-Ftehim ta’ Pariġi (tnaqqis ta’ 26-28% mil-livelli tas-sena 2020 sa 2030), għandha titħalla tapplika kreditu kbir mill-ftehim ta’ qabel, dak ta’ Kyoto, ħaġa li hi biss qed tipproponi li tapplika.

Jekk dan isir, ifisser li jkollha bżonn tagħmel 10% biss tax-xogħol li hemm bżonn ta’ tnaqqis fit-tniġġiż, pożizzjoni li kienet ikkritikata bl-aħrax mill-pajjiżi parteċipanti l-oħra.6

Jekk lanqas aħna li qiegħdin inbatu u għandna x’nitilfu ma nuru ħeġġa, kif se nikkonvinċu ‘l pajjiżi oħra biex jistinkaw għalina? Fejn hi l-prevenzjoni?