Quo vadis, PN?

As you know, there was recently a political earthquake in Malta caused by the resignation of the then Prime Minister Joseph Muscat, consequential to political decisions that had been taken during the investigation into the brutal killing of Daphne Caruana Galizia (DCG).

Many Maltese people are still following minute by minute the evidence coming out of the Maltese courts, and it seems that investigations are still ongoing. The consequences of what is being said are still playing out, such as the resignation of the Minister for Gozo Justyne Caruana.

Now that the legal cases seems to have found their own rhythm, attention has more or less shifted to the Nationalist Party (PN), which had much to gain politically from the alleged involvement of several members of the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) with people allegedly directly involved in the killing. This political advantage does not seem to have materialised, and considerable attention is being given to the PN leader, Adrian Delia.

An opinion poll, published in MaltaToday of 2nd February about who from the major political parties in Malta are most trusted, indicates that Delia is trusted by only 13.5% of participants, whereas Robert Abela, the leader of the Labour Party (PL) and new Prime Minister, has 62.5%. This outcome is worse than the result of the previous polling (21.3% for Delia, 50.5% for Muscat) that had been carried out in 2019.

Even amongst PN supporters, Delia’s popularity is low (34%) and that of Abela is surprisingly high (22.5%). In contrast, Abela’s popularity amongst PL supporters is 95.5%.1

Leading the PN since October 2017, after the resignation of Simon Busuttil triggered by the electoral drubbing of that year (PN 43.68%, PL 55.01%), Delia led the PN to defeat at the Local Council elections of 2019 (PN 39.8%, PL 57.96%) and that for Members of the European Parliament (PN 37.9%, PL 54.29%).2 Up to now, Delia has not led his party into a general election.

Dr Delia seems never to have had the fortune of gaining the wide support that all leaders have after the democratic choice in the party has been made. It is clear he has the support by a majority of party members and council members of the PN (52.7% of the members in 2017 when elected leader, 67.5% of counsellors in 2019 when an internal vote of confidence was taken)3 4.

It is clear there is a strong minority in the party, including amongst members of parliament, for whom this leader rubs them up the wrong way. There could be several reasons, and probably include ugly allegations that had been made in his regard by DCG herself when she accused him of being involved in a prostitution ring in London5, which has been denied by Delia.

My comment is that it’s the job of the party leader to unite his party and be competitive to win elections. To date there does not seem to be the slightest whiff of this happening.

It is true that Dr Delia has won internal votes in the party, however he and the party he represents need to win back votes that today vote for the opposite party without any hesitation. Some time ago, he criticised those who oppose him within the PN with the comment that the party is not theirs. I would add using the same logic that the party is not his either, and ask what would happen if the next general election in 2022 will result in a drubbing similar to the last two? Will it be said that all the warning signs were ignored?

I’ve written another time6 about the image of Messiah that many party supporters seem to attribute to the leader of their party, of any hue. It is an optimistic image that is perfectly understandable, however it is also dangerous.

A country’s citizens are always nervous in awaiting the results of elections, and party supporters probably more rather than less so. Here in Australia, general elections for the federal parliament have a term of three years, whereas in Malta the term is for five. The consequences of electoral results in Malta are thus more long lasting.

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Bħal ma tafu, kien hemm terremot politiku reċentement f’Malta kkawżat mir-riżenja tal-Prim Ministru ta’ dakinhar Joseph Muscat, konsegwenza ta’ deċiżjonijiet politiċi li kienu ttieħdu waqt l-investigazzjonijiet fuq il-qtil brutali ta’ Daphne Caruana Galizia (DCG).

Ħafna Maltin għadhom isegwu minuta b’minuta x-xiehda li qiegħda toħroġ fil-Qrati Maltin, u jidher li l-investigazzjonijiet għadhom għaddejjin. Il-konsegwenzi ta’ dak li qed jingħad għadhom iseħħu, bħar-riżenja tal-Ministru għal Għawdex Justyne Caruana.

Issa li l-kawżi legali jidhru li qabdu ċertu ritmu, xi ftit jew wisq l-attenzjoni daret fuq il-Partit Nazzjonalista (PN), li kellu ħafna x’jiggwadanja politikament mill-allegat involviment ta’ diversi membri tal-uffiċċju tal-Prim Ministru (OPM) ma’ min huwa allegatament li kellu direttament x’jaqsam mal-qtil. Dan il-vantaġġ politiku jidher li ma mmaterjalizzax, u ħafna attenzjoni qed jingħata lill-kap tal-PN, Dr. Adrian Delia.

Stħarriġ tal-opinjoni pubblika dwar min mill-kapijiet tal-partiti l-kbar f’Malta huwa l-iktar fdat, li ġie ppubblikat fil-MaltaToday tat-tnejn ta’ Frar li għadda, jidher li Delia huwa fdat biss minn 13.5% ta’ min ipparteċipa, filwaqt li Robert Abela, il-kap tal-Partit Laburista (PL) u Prim Ministru l-ġdid, għandu 62.5%. Dan ir-riżultat għal Delia huwa agħar mir-riżultat tal-istħarriġ ta’ qabel (21.3% għal Delia, u 50.5% għal Muscat) li kien sar fl-2019.

Anke fost il-partitarji Nazzjonalisti, il-popolarità ta’ Delia huwa baxx (34%), u dak ta’ Abela huwa sorprendentement għoli (22.5%). B’kuntrast, il-popolarità ta’ Abela fil-partitarji tal-PL huwa ta’ 95.5%.1

Kemm ilu kap tal-PN f’Ottubru tal-2017, wara riżenja ta’ Simon Busuttil konsegwenza tat-tkaxkira fl-elezzjoni ta’ dik is-sena (PN 43.68%, PL 55.04%), Delia mexxa lill-PN għal telfa fil-Kunsilli Lokali tal-2019 (PN 39.8%, PL 57.96%) u għall-membri parlamentari fl-Unjoni Ewropea (PN 37.9%, PL 54.29%).2 S’issa, Delia għadu ma mexxiex lill-partit tiegħu f’elezzjoni ġenerali.

Dr Delia jidher li qatt ma kellu x-xorti li jgawdi l-appoġġ mifrux li jkollu kull kap wara li tkun għaddiet l-għażla demokratika fil-partit. Huwa ċar li għandu l-appoġġ tal-maġġoranza tal-membri u tal-kunsilliera tal-PN (52.7% tal-membri fl-2017 meta sar kap, 67.5% tal-kunsilliera fl-2019 meta sar vot ta’ kunfidenza interna)3 4.

Huwa ċar ukoll li hemm minoranza qawwija fil-partit, inklużi membri tal-parlament, li għalihom l-kap tagħhom ma jinżlilhomx. Ir-raġunijiet jistgħu ikunu varji, u aktarx jinkludu allegazzjonijiet koroh li kienu saru fil-konfront tiegħu minn DCG innifisha meta akkużatu li kellu x’jaqsam mal-prostituzzjoni f’Londra5, ħaġa li Delia ċaħad.

Il-kumment tiegħi hu li x-xogħol tal-kap tal-partit huwa wieħed li jgħaqqad lill-partit tiegħu u jkun kompetittiv biex jirbaħ l-elezzjonijiet. Dan s’issa ma jidher li m’hemm lanqas riħa fil-bogħod tagħha.

Huwa veru li Dr.Delia rebaħ il-voti interni fil-partit, imma hu u l-partit li jirrappreżenta jridu jirbħu lura voti li llum mingħajr eżitazzjoni jivvutaw lill-partit l-oppost. Ftit ilu, ikkritika lil dawk li jopponuh fil-PN bil-kumment li l-partit mhux tagħhom. Jien inżid li b’dan ir-raġunament il-partit mhux tiegħu lanqas, u nistaqsi x’se jiġri jekk l-elezzjoni ġenerali li ġejja fl-2022 terġa tirriżulta fi tkaxkira oħra bħat-tnejn li għaddew? Jingħad li ġew injorati s-sinjali kollha li dehru?

Diġà ktibt darb’oħra6 dwar ix-xbiha ta’ Messija li ħafna partitarji jidhru li jattribwixxu għall-kap tal-partit tagħhom, ta’ kull lewn. Hija xbiha ottimista li tinftiehem, imma hija wkoll perikoluża.

Iċ-ċittadini tal-pajjiżi dejjem ikunu nervużi jistennew ir-riżultat tal-elezzjonijiet, u l-partitarji aktarx xi ftit (jew wisq) iktar. Hawn l-Awstralja, l-elezzjonijiet ġenerali għall-parlament federali għandhom terminu ta’ tliet snin, filwaqt li f’Malta t-terminu huwa ta’ ħamsa. Il-konsegwenzi ta’ riżultat elettorali f’Malti għalhekk huma iktar dejjiema.

1https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/data_and_surveys/100114/abela_delia_trust_barometer_february_2020#.Xks1QeFS9wA, retrieved 18/2/2020

2ara https://electoral.gov.mt/

3https://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2017-09-16/local-news/Voting-ends-in-PN-leadership-election-new-leader-to-be-announced-in-the-early-hours-of-the-morning-6736179104, retrieved 18/2/2020

4https://www.tvm.com.mt/en/news/adrian-delia-updated-updated-2-adrian-delia-wins-vote-of-confidence-with-67-5-vote-delia-wins-vote-of-confidence-with-67-5-vote-delia-arrives-at-dar-centrali-result-on-his-future-to-be-announced-so/, retrieved 18/2/2020

5https://daphnecaruanagalizia.com/2017/08/around-1-million-money-london-prostitution-processed-adrian-delias-barclays-international-account-jersey/, retrieved 18/2/2020

6The Voice of the Maltese, No. 113, Perspettiva

1https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/data_and_surveys/100114/abela_delia_trust_barometer_february_2020#.Xks1QeFS9wA, retrieved 18/2/2020

2ara https://electoral.gov.mt/

3https://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2017-09-16/local-news/Voting-ends-in-PN-leadership-election-new-leader-to-be-announced-in-the-early-hours-of-the-morning-6736179104, retrieved 18/2/2020

5https://daphnecaruanagalizia.com/2017/08/around-1-million-money-london-prostitution-processed-adrian-delias-barclays-international-account-jersey/, retrieved 18/2/2020

6The Voice of the Maltese, No. 113, Perspettiva